Forex and cryptocurrencies forecast for April 1 to 5 2019
EUR / USD
Despite the decline in GDP data, the US dollar has been quite confident this week. And it is not the president of the United States or the Fed, but, first of all, the Prime Minister and the Parliament of Great Britain, who can not decide how to get out of the stalemate that they themselves have driven, who are the reason.
Naturally, the ambiguity with Brexit could not but put pressure on the European currency, which has been falling all week. And any attempt by the bulls to change the trend was based on the line of downward resistance (1.1447-1.1230). And only on Friday, just before the next vote in the British Parliament, the couple moved towards a lateral movement. Thus, as of March 20, it lost approximately 235 points, setting the minimum at the level of 1.1209, very close to a very important support / resistance level of 1.1200.
GBP / USD
It is not for nothing that the ancient Greeks called Great Britain Foggy Albion. The British managed to make the Brexit procedure so confusing that it is impossible to see the way from the EU, even at arm's length.
As of the end of Friday, March 29, we can indicate the following. The Parliament voted three times against the agreement with the EU in Theresa May's version. But he voted against withdrawing without any agreement at all as well. The country's leadership must formulate additional plans until April 12 or withdraw without an agreement (but Parliament is against such an exit). It is likely that Mrs May proposes an extension of the Brexit procedure based on Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. But then the United Kingdom will have to participate in the European elections, to which the parliamentarians are opposed again.
Europe also does not really understand how to act in a situation of such uncertainty, which is why an emergency summit of the EU is being convened. And the pound sterling rolled to the lower limit of the five-week side runner 1.2960-1.3350, but did not abandon it, having fought 55 more points and completed the five-day period at the 1.3030 level.
USD / JPY
The strengthening of the dollar and not the reduction of risk appetites of investors could not but touch the yen. Remember that 15% of the oscillators in H4 and D1 at the end of last week already showed signs that this pair had been oversold, which is a fairly accurate precursor of the trend reversal, and the graphical analysis indicated an increase in the pair above 110.75. Everything happened according to this scenario: the pair made a shot to the north, rising from the level of 109.70 to 110.90. The final chord rang at 110.85.
Cryptocurrencies
Our forecast last week said that, in the absence of serious news, the BTC / USD would not fall below $ 3,900, but would try to overcome the resistance in the area of $ 4,200. That's exactly what happened. Having set the minimum of $ 3,938 on Monday, March 25, the couple turned around and advanced upward for all the remaining days, reaching $ 4,190 on Friday and thus completing the two-week cycle almost in the same place where it began. .
After Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH / USD) and Litecoin (LTC / USD) demonstrated a similar dynamic, having gained almost 100% of their recent losses. And it was only Ripple (XRP / USD) that could not return to the March 16 maximum, $ 0.328, and stopped a little below its 10-week pivot point of $ 0.318.
As for the forecast for next week, which summarizes the opinions of various analysts, as well as forecasts based on a variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:
Next week in the EUR/USD
If the pair exceeds the support level of 1.1200, you can continue dropping. 75% of the analysts, 100% of the trend indicators and 90% of the oscillators in H4 and D1 agree with this. The closest target is the minimum of 2018-19, registered on March 7, 1,1175. The following support is 50 points below.
But, despite this apparently clear advantage of the bulls, not everything is so simple. Already at this moment, 10% of the oscillators signal the pair. it is oversold The graphical analysis in D1 also indicates that it will not be able to overcome a support as strong as 1.1175 and will return to the 1.1340 horizon. In the medium term, 60% of the experts agree with the return to the area of 1.1300-1.1500.
In terms of economic developments, attention should be paid to the publication of statistics on the consumer market in the euro zone and the United States on Monday, April 1, as well as data on the United States labor market (including the NFP), which will be published on Friday, April 5. Analysts expect that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector will increase considerably in March compared to February, from 20K to 175K, although the average wage growth will remain at the same level. These data should strengthen the dollar, but it should be borne in mind that the market very often takes into account these forecasts in advance in their quotes.
Next week in the GBP/USD
At the time of writing, the forecast for this pair is almost one to one similar to the forecast for EUR / USD. This also applies to the bearish attitude of 75% of the experts and the red color of the indicators. In addition to the fog with Brexit, the UK has a very serious trade deficit, the interest rate is low and the pound is subject to great risks, so investors avoid investing in the British economy.
The pound ended the week near the strong support / resistance level of 1.3000. But, unlike the euro, it is still far from the minimum of 2018-2019. Therefore, an advance below 1.3000 opens the way for the pound to be compatible with 1.2830 and 1.2770.
The similarity with the euro this week concerns both bearish and bullish scenarios. Here, oversold signals are signaled by 10% of the oscillators, and graphical analysis shows that, after having fallen to 1.2960, the pair will rise and head towards the center of the five-week lateral corridor 1.2960-1.3350 in the area of 1.3150.
Next week in the USD/JPY
The next movement of this pair can be limited to channel 109.70-112.15. The pair is practically at its center at this moment, and the only question is where it will move now, down or up.
Most trend indicators and oscillators look north on H4, while on D1 they take a neutral position. At the same time, 15% of the oscillators in H4 indicate that the pair is overbought.
As for the analysts, 65% of them, supported by the graphic analysis in H4, have allied with the bears. And 35%, along with the graphical analysis in D1, gives the victory to the bulls.
Since December 15 of last year, the total capitalization of the cryptographic market has grown by almost 40%, reaching a maximum of $ 143,366 million on Wednesday, March 27. This is certainly a good sign and gives hope that Bitcoin will overcome the resistance. of $ 4,200 and get a foothold in the range of $ 4,200-4,280. Almost 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The next target for the bulls is the area 4,365-4,385, where the maximums of November-December of 2018 are located. However, we remember that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of power changes, and here, as before , 70% of analysts on the bears side, vote for the pair reduction to the $ 3,000 mark.
Next week in Cryptocurrencies
Since December 15 of last year, the total capitalization of the cryptographic market has grown by almost 40%, reaching a maximum of $ 143,366 million on Wednesday, March 27. This is certainly a good sign and gives hope that Bitcoin will overcome the resistance. of $ 4,200 and get a foothold in the range of $ 4,200-4,280. Almost 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The next target for the bulls is the area 4,365-4,385, where the maximums of November-December of 2018 are located. However, we remember that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the balance of power changes, and here, as before , 70% of analysts on the bears side, vote for the pair reduction to the $ 3,000 mark.
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