Still Reluctant to Make a Call on AUD/USD

danewilliams (35)in #forex • 6 years ago

I've been reluctant to short the Aussie this week and although some pips could definitely have been made on a break through the confluence of weekly support, price has now pinged back above the zone and held thanks to today's strong Aussie jobs number:

AUD Employment Change: 44.0K v 16.5K expected and -4.3K previous.
AUD Unemployment Rate: 5.3% v 5.3% expected and 5.3% previous.

Starting on the weekly, you can first see the trend line support level that I'm taking about:

Then zoom into an intraday chart and you can see the bottom red zone was swing low support from way back. You can do the scrolling back yourself, I can't really show it here:

But as I said, after dropping below them, price has now pinged back and we have two scenarios to consider:

Price will remain capped by the previous intraday swing high resistance zone in blue that we've used to short in the past. This would also mean that weekly trend line support would turn resistance.
Price will find weekly support again, reactivating the level and it's longs we should be looking for.

I'm still reluctant to make a call on this pair and will wait and see if higher time frame support is confirmed as either holding or breaking before doing so.

Best of probabilities to you.