Efficiency upfront - A simple analysis of chance conversion MVP's of the last 5 years
Hello everyone!
Here's my first original content, as promised.
Well, I know that I promised a Messi vs Ronaldo analysis, but this is, in my opinion, more interesting.
Chance conversion is a metric that, as far as I know, has been underutilised by football statisticians. Yes, it doesn't paint a clear picture on a game-by-game basis, but over a large data set, as presented below, it is a fairly excellent indicator of the player's individual impact.
Of course, it would be rather stupid to link this to the quality of the player, as there are so many more variables which determine the impact that an individual is said to provide his team. In my opinion, this just outlines the most efficient players; players who make the most of their chances - and hence, I think an analysis on similar lines (of course with more variables) might be helpful for budget-limited teams to sign strikers. Or for teams like Burnley or West Brom, who create so few chances that they have to convert a higher percentage than the top teams to stay alive.
Let's look at the chance conversion stats for some of Europe's best (high output) goalscoring attackers (I believe I've covered most of the relevant players) since the beginning of the 2012/13* season. The list is in no particular order.
Table 1 - Chance conversion rates for the elite in Europe - each season since 2012/13
| Player | 2012/13 | 2013/14 | 2014/15 | 2015/16 | 2016/17 | 2017/18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Messi | 28.22% | 17.50% | 22.99% | 16.46% | 20.67% | 18.75% |
| Ronaldo | 14.47% | 14.35% | 21.33% | 15.42% | 15.43% | 2.56% |
| Bale | 12.73% | 17.05% | 12.62% | 23.46% | 10.94% | 14.29% |
| Suarez | 12.30% | 17.13% | 21.33% | 29.20% | 23.33% | 10.71% |
| Neymar | NA | 13.24% | 23.16% | 19.35% | 12.38% | 28.00% |
| Griezmann | 10.75% | 14.41% | 28.21% | 23.91% | 18.18% | 9.52% |
| Hazard | 14.29% | 19.18% | 17.95% | 11.11% | 20.78% | 20.00% |
| Sanchez | 25.00% | 28.79% | 13.22% | 12.15% | 18.75% | 4.00% |
| Benzema | 17.19% | 16.67% | 21.74% | 24.49% | 15.94% | 6.25% |
| Ibrahimovic | 24.11% | 16.15% | 20.65% | 24.68% | 14.66% | NA |
| Aguero | 13.95% | 19.77% | 17.57% | 20.17% | 14.39% | 25.93% |
| Cavani | 18.59% | 16.67% | 16.22% | 22.09% | 24.65% | 29.73% |
| Kane | NA | 10.71% | 18.75% | 15.72% | 26.36% | 14.29% |
| Higuain | 28.57% | 18.89% | 15.93% | 19.78% | 17.91% | 21.43% |
| Lukaku | 17.53% | 14.85% | 9.52% | 15.25% | 22.73% | 18.92% |
| Lewandowski | 24.49% | 17.09% | 19.87% | 16.19% | 20.83% | 30.30% |
| Falcao | 22.76% | 18.00% | 14.63% | 9.09% | 26.25% | 50.00% |
| Costa | 20.00% | 25.00% | 26.32% | 17.65% | 18.02% | NA |
| Icardi | 19.61% | 22.50% | 18.33% | 28.07% | 22.02% | 35.48% |
| Aubameyang | 13.87% | 20.31% | 15.69% | 21.19% | 26.50% | 25.64% |
| Lacazette | 8.11% | 17.86% | 28.13% | 22.11% | 32.53% | 23.81% |
| Bas Dost | 16.67% | 44.44% | 37.21% | 20.00% | 39.53% | 44.44% |
| Muller | 19.12% | 18.57% | 15.48% | 21.51% | 7.69% | 7.69% |
| Aduriz | 16.67% | 19.28% | 20.45% | 21.51% | 19.05% | 21.05% |
| Giroud | 10.28% | 14.29% | 20.00% | 15.84% | 30.77% | 12.50% |
Table 2 - Overall Chance conversion rates (Again, in no particular order.)
| Player | Chance conversion |
|---|---|
| Messi | 21.08% |
| Ronaldo | 15.76% |
| Bale | 14.95% |
| Suarez | 19.37% |
| Neymar | 17.99% |
| Griezmann | 18.22% |
| Hazard | 17.47% |
| Sanchez | 16.91% |
| Benzema | 18.90% |
| Ibrahimovic | 20.00% |
| Aguero | 17.52% |
| Cavani | 20.38% |
| Kane | 18.49% |
| Higuain | 19.40% |
| Lukaku | 16.20% |
| Lewandowski | 20.22% |
| Falcao | 23.56% |
| Costa | 21.55% |
| Icardi | 22.55% |
| Aubameyang | 19.76% |
| Lacazette | 23.56% |
| Bas Dost | 31.97% |
| Muller | 16.54% |
| Aduriz | 19.51% |
| Giroud | 16.02% |
The data is till 31st October, 2017.
Only league performances have been considered.
Some observations
- Sanchez's stats are very interesting. His conversion rates are among the best (#3 in 2012/13 and #1 in 2013/14) in his Barca years, but drop harshly after his switch to Arsenal. Maybe.. should have stayed at Barca?
- No one can match the consistency of the renaissance man, Aritz Aduriz. Not only does the Benjamin Button of football boast an excellent scoring rate, his consistent chance conversion (in the 19-21 region for the last 4 years) is remarkable. It's easy to forget that he'll turn 37 later this season.
- Messi, despite a curious alternating pattern, has an excellent overall rate, befitting his status as the best in the world. His overall rate (considering 192 goals in the period) as shown in the second table, is remarkable, as no player who has scored at least 100 goals in the period beats his conversion rate.
- But it is his eternal rival, the magical Portuguese, who presents the most shocking data of all. Cristiano Ronaldo's chance conversion rate is the lowest of all the players considered, except his injury-plagued teammate Bale - who has a slightly lower rate. Ronaldo has even posted rates lower than 16 in every single season except the 2014/15 season. Once penalties are taken away, it only gets worse for Ronaldo. He hits rock bottom (13.17%), with no player having a lower rate.
- I've always liked Bas Dost. He has always had a terrific chance conversion rate - well above the rest of the pack. But wasn't largely noticed till a couple of seasons ago, and no offence to Sporting, but he probably should be playing for a better club. Probably not a great all-round attacker, but certainly one of the most clinical players around. For a team with above average service, he can be terrific.
- Giroud probably has the worst record. At 16.02% he is above only Ronaldo and Bale, but his record is not helped by the fact that 83.52% of his chances were inside the box. For comparison, for non-pure strikers like Messi, Ronaldo, Bale, Hazard and Sanchez it is <65% and even for out-and-out strikers like Lukaku (72.58%) and Aguero (78.09%), it is <80%. And his numbers are stretched by his very high rate (30.77%) in the 2016/17 season where he played mostly as an impact substitute, which may help explain the 30%+ score. Take that away and he falls to the very bottom of the pile.
Here's an overview of the results.
Messi, it appears, is truly in a class of his own.
d10s
Bonus stat! Ronaldo's struggles in the current league season are well documented, but here's a startling stat.
As of today, he has missed 97.87% of the chances created for him by his teammates. He has had more chances than Looks like his teammates are probably not to blame. Here's hoping that he gets back to his scoring best soon.
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Thank you for reading till the end! Here's your prize!
*Reliable data not available for matches played before the 2012/13 season