NCAA College Football Playoff: Preview and Free-For-All Contest
The College Football Playoffs are almost here and we’re going to make it spectacular!
But first...some thoughts about the two match-ups.
(1) Alabama Crimson Tide vs. (4) Washington Huskies
This will be an interesting game, but probably for all of the wrong reasons. It’s intriguing to me because Washington appears to be the typical Pac-12 team coming out of a conference that is perceived to be fairly weak. Let’s face it – the two teams that have dominated the conference for most of the past decade (USC and Oregon) aren’t what they used to be. The third somewhat dominant team of the last few years – Stanford – has also had difficulty.
Despite appearing to look great to the casual viewer, the Huskies still lost a home game to the USC Trojans. The Huskies ran for only 17 yards in the entire game, even though they entered it as the top rushing team in the Pac-12, averaging about 231 yards per game. This has always been one of the problems with the “explosive” Pac-12 teams like Oregon and now Washington. When they play the traditional teams with solid defensive lines, they struggle to establish a running game. This inevitably leads to the inability to open up the passing game because safeties are not drawn to the line of scrimmage to help stop the rushing attack.
If the game against USC was not an aberration, then we could see the same thing happen against Alabama – which is a team that typically plays the same style of football as USC. Recruiting is similar (and similarly great), the defense is solidly constructed and coached, and they don’t give up big chunks of yardage.
Alabama may have some issues of their own, but they have so far been able to remain undefeated. Granted, the SEC is not what it used to be. The SEC East is just bad right now. Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina – these aren’t good teams. They’ve been playing terribly and have taken some really bad losses. The SEC West isn’t much better, outside of Alabama. This season has really showcased the fact that Alabama is playing in a “one-team conference.” Other than the Crimson Tide, every team in the conference has at least four losses.
Regardless of the level of competition in their conference, Alabama has been playing well and will need their freshman quarterback, Jalen Hurts, to continue lighting up the field. I don’t see Alabama having much difficulty running the ball against Washington. They have a big offensive line and a corps of good running backs, in addition to the mobility of Jalen Hurts. This game will likely get ugly for Washington and I think they’ll lose by a fairly large margin, probably close to 20 points.
However...Alabama has been known to blow a game against a team they’re supposed to dominate. I don’t think that’ll happen here, but it is possible.
(3) Ohio State Buckeyes vs. (2) Clemson Tigers
The first game is intriguing, but this game is exciting. These two teams both have experienced, dual-threat quarterbacks (both juniors) and either team can score at-will on big plays or on long sustained drives. Deshaun Watson and J.T. Barrett have been playing very well and both are coming into this game with a huge win under their belt in their last outing. If either player is hot out of the gate, the opposing defense will have a long night ahead of them.
Let’s take a look at the quarterback comparison.
| Statistic | J.T. Barrett | D. Watson |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 2428 | 3914 |
| Completion % | 61.9% | 67.6% |
| Passing TDs | 24 | 37 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 15 |
| QB Rating | 140.8 | 154 |
| Rushing Yards | 847 | 529 |
| Rush Avg. | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Rush TDs | 9 | 6 |
In the passing game, Watson has the bigger numbers – yards, completion percentage, and touchdowns. But he also has three times as many interceptions as Barrett. If Watson doesn’t take care of the football, the Ohio State defense can be a nightmare for him. Their defense has 19 interceptions this season, with seven returned for a touchdown, which is the best in the FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision).
The Clemson defense will need to account for Barrett’s running ability in Ohio State’s spread-option offense. This is no easy task, as Clemson will have their hands full trying to defend against the one-two attack of Mike Weber and the always explosive Curtis Samuel. With Barrett, this becomes a one-two-three onslaught that few teams have had success even slowing down, let alone stopping.
On the other hand, the Buckeyes have been mostly missing the deep threat in their passing game this year. Curtis Samuel has been their main target, with a few other players in a supporting role. I suspect that a lot of this has to do with the actual play-calling from the coaches, which has been frustrating Buckeye fans all season long. A big coaching blunder actually cost them the game against Penn State.
For Clemson, the key will be their ability to run against the Ohio State defense. The Buckeyes have shown some vulnerability against dual-threat quarterbacks and have given up a lot of rushing yards on occasion to the opposing team’s feature running backs. Clemson can put some heat on the Buckeye secondary if they can successfully attack the defensive front. That may be their key to victory, since Clemson has demonstrated that their defense can give up a lot of points. If they can keep the Buckeye defense off-balance, the game could turn into a shoot-out.
At the end of the day, I think Ohio State wins this one by less than a touchdown. Whatever happens, it should be a good game to watch and will likely be the better of the two playoff games.
Now to the contest!
(Gold bars do not reflect typical contest results.)
This will be run like my previous Free-For-All contests. We will have the regular five statistics for these two games. They are listed below, with current stats for each selection. Some numbers have been rounded for game accuracy. Statistics with decimal places can have game results with decimal numbers.
1. Washington QB, Jake Browning, Pass Attempts: Season average per game is 27.
2. Alabama Rushing Yards, Team: Season average per game is 245.
3. Ohio State RB, Curtis Samuel, Total Yards of Offense: Season average per game is 127.
4. Clemson Offensive Yards Per Play, Team: Season average is 6.35.
5. Total Points Scored, Both Games Combined: Combined season average for all four teams is 168.
PLEASE NOTE: Accuracy matters! If a game statistic can have a decimal place, guessing closest to that decimal number can result in an outright win, rather than a tie and a split reward. On the other hand, it can also result in missing out on the tie and any potential rewards.
How to Play and Win
In a comment on this post, submit your numbers in the order that they appear above. You can number your selections (1–5) as they are above or not, but if not, I will assume that they are in the correct order and the results will be checked in that order. ONLY ONE COMMENT SUBMISSION PER USER, PER CONTEST.
Once your comment is submitted, I will confirm it after the deadline for entering the contest. The deadline for submission is 11:00PM NEW YORK TIME (UTC -5) ON FRIDAY NIGHT – DECEMBER 30, 2016. After submissions are confirmed by me, any new entries or edits to comments will automatically disqualify you from the contest. So make sure that you have accurately submitted your numbers before the deadline.
There will be one winner for each statistic. The winner will be the contestant closest to the actual final statistics from the game. There is no limit to the number of stat categories that you can win. Contestants can potentially win one or all of the categories.
The contest is funded with 100% of the liquid rewards from this post. The rewards distribution will be divided evenly between the five statistical categories. Each category winner will receive 20% of the total rewards. In the event of a tie, the rewards will be split between the tying contestants for that category.
This is more than just a contest, so feel free to leave comments.
If you have any thoughts about the games and want to showcase your NCAAF knowledge, then drop that knowledge on us in the comments! Trash-talk if you’d like (but let’s keep it clean and fun, please) and invite your friends and family to Steemit to participate!
Thanks for your support and good luck!
Follow me: @ats-david
33
229.5
146.5
4.84
118
27
245
127
6.35
168
one 24
two 180
three 103
four 4.80
five 159
29
258
140
5.70
189
36
212
112
4.86
114
45
221
101
5.85
107