Don't expect this to be a daily thing, I put daily, but I really meant news of the day. Also, not financial advice.

Quick major news

• Jeff Bezos will step down as CEO in 21Q3.
• $GOOG EPS at $22,30 with revenues at $56,90B.
• $AMZN EPS at $14,09 with revenues at $125,6B
• Silver went down 8%, Gamestop went down 60%, AMC went down 41,2%. Short ladder quadra-witching attack?
• Pfizer estimates that its anti-covid vaccine will generate 15 billion dollars in revenue in the year 2021.
• The banking sector is going up a lot thanks to rising U.S. government bond yields.

What to look for tomorrow

• ECB Monetary Policy Statement
• Major Earnings report : Paypal, Qualcomm and Ebay

My thoughts

New retail money and its consequences on the overall market

This whole squeezy thing made a lot of new people aware of the stock market. Most made money. I therefore predict that there's going to be a lot of new money in the market. That leads to 2 things :

• The market as a whole will go up
• The market will have much more volatility the more unemployed people there is (the more quarantined people there is also).

The first point is rather obvious in my opinion but the second one needs a little bit of explaining. It's based on the Boredom Markets Hypothesis from Matt Levine. For short : people are bored, people want fun, people see the stock market as a fun casino, people trade.

Add to those 2 points the fact that retail investors actually beat index funds during the first quarantine in 2020. This is a recipe for success for the overall market :

1. Retail investors are bored and trade fun stocks.
2. Retail investors actually made money.
3. They get their jobs back and they no longer have time to follow the market.
4. They put their money, earnings and salary into boring ETFs or blue chips stocks.

I've said basically this on this post about my 100k yolo. A little update on this : I really bought at the peak and after those great first days of the week, I barely broke even. So that sucks! Also, I might change for SPY calls as I think s&p500 will have a similar growth as Nasdaq but the SPY calls are giving better returns than Nasdaq calls for the same % change of the underlying.

Apple vs Facebook

So, hum... Facebook, with 96% of its users using the mobile app, decided to declare war against the biggest smartphone manufacturer? That's going to go well... To be fair, they don't have that much choice when the big smartphone manufacturer decides to make it very transparent what data you have access to and how much data you collect.

So, as more young people realize the extend of the data collected by Facebook, and since they're not really big fans of the app anyway, they will most probably stop using it for other more fun social medias. If they can't attract new young people, that's the death of Facebook app's growth.

Add to that more and more controversies on the whole Whatsapp-Facebook merge, more and more people more aware of alternative apps, and probably some regulations coming in this year or 2022, this is not great for Facebook at all.

But for Apple? How is Apple going down? Let's take the insane worst-case scenario for apple that Facebook stops support for Iphones. You think people will stop using Iphones just to have a social media that they've been using just as an addictive habit?

And for ther other apps in the Apple Store profiting of data collecting, I'm sure they know how lucrative the Apple market is as those customers that spend the most amount of money on phones will most likely spend the most amount of money on other things. Paid apps will do well. Ads there will do extremely well. They just need to be less shady about how they collect their data. And if you stop support for your Apple app just because Apple shows how you collect your users' data, this will not be very good PR for you my guy.

So yes, Facebook is in a lot of trouble and seems to be slowly going downhill but it's not a new trend. Apple is just the one hurting them the most at the moment. So my long-term thesis (2 or 3 years) is that Facebook will be hurt by this with a maximum upside of a stock price being flat and apple is going to do really great in the coming years.

Bye!