STEEM price, an honest assessment.
Waking up to two green STEEM days in a row.
I almost forgot what that feels like :)
It's no secret what I have been doing.
I've been buying STEEM every day gradually.
There is no comparison between the effort you have to put into earning STEEM vs straight up buying it right now.
Steem has been the biggest grind of my life and earning STEEM has become more difficult over time.
I always wanted more STEEM and buying in this downtrend is something I'm pretty good at. (I enjoy buying more of the same asset I really want cheaper every day.)
I also have no idea where the bottom is so I dollar average in.
But I didn't buy STEEM yesterday or today. (my vlog from yesterday is still being processed, I talk about it in there)
I've read several posts already of people calling for that bottom now.
I think that's a bit premature.
I like to draw on charts and trying to find patterns as a hobby. But I mostly use long term indicators like the ones above.
All the long term trend lines (daily and weekly) are still bearish as far as I can tell (pointing down).
I would like them to turn before saying the bottom is in.
There is a big problem with that though.
Once it is truly confirmed the bottom is in, the price of STEEM will likely be trading higher than it is today (rough guess + 50 cents).
When that happens I can't buy with FIAT. (hence I am slowly doing it now)
It will be too expensive and pointless to use extra FIAT to add to what I have.
What I then have is what I will have. This will be the situation for most people.
If you decide to sell at some point it will be like trading because you will never earn it back on Steem EVER (unless you run a successful business on here, that accepts STEEM).
HF21 will accelerate this process.
Remember though that HF21 can be very good for Steem but it can be bad for your ability to earn STEEM.
When Steem becomes what I think it can become (a huge economic ecosystem) bigger investors with pockets you can't even imagine will at some point swoop in and buy in large at any price if they believe it's a good buy.
They will not care that you can no longer earn STEEM. They will use it for their own business or will use it to buy into SMT projects. (STEEM will be the main trading pair).
When millions of users are here every day it's ludicrous anyway to think that earning STEEM is still a possibility. (Maybe some microSTEEM).
Every STEEM therefor that you can earn today or have earned is a privilege not many will be able to enjoy.
I highly recommend you just keep it and use it in good time to make it generate for you (leasing it out for example).
On Steem even though it's already 3,5 years old it's still early days.
But changes in mindset on here are happening fast and there are many good developments happening that accelerate the tokenization of the web (SMT's/ Steem Engine) and the options to build great communities.
And when that happens every user/business will need RC's that can only be given out by the users that have Steempower.
I want to be a user with Steempower and ultimately (many years from now) I want to lease out my stake for a passive income. Until that time comes, I build and invest in as many projects on Steem as I can, while I still can.
So is the bottom here? I sure hope not.
I want some more STEEM while I still can get it.
But if it is the bottom and we go up from here I can also live with it.
And that's the most honest assessment of the price I can give.
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The thing about when cryptocurrencies bottom out is it never goes as low as we want it to nor as high as anyone says it will on the way back up. The number one problem with STEEM is that it trades mainly versus BTC on exchanges I (and other US customers) use.
If they could design a system where they could trade vs fiat and or hold the BTC on the site it would help. I have an idea I will probably write up in a post but essentially it would be where any STEEM sold would be on an internal BTC exchange. You could power up the BTC or STEEM instead of having people send STEEM off site to trade for BTC (then selling).
Aaaah I now start to feel the addiction this all brings along. I promised to always tell my wife when I buy crypto currency. She can show me wether she cares or she doesn't. I recently bought for 100 euros of steem (I can't spend as much as you), but reading your content makes me want to buy more and more! So great job on motivating people.
I also have a question: I have about 600 SP, 400 Steem on Steemit and another 700 Steem somewhere else. For saving sakes, what do you reckon to be the best investment. Spread it and sell when the price is high? Or transfer it all to SP and power down when the price is high?
Any suggestions?
Don't buy more Steem because of me. I am just documenting my journey.
STEEM that is liquid doesn't work for you. It only makes sense to have it liquid if you want to trade it. If you plan on hodling it for a long time I would always power it up and let it generate.
But I'm not 100% sure what the best option to generate will be after HF21. Lot's of changes will occur to the economics. If you plan to sell it, sell it high :)
Cheers dude! I'd never blame someone else for my choices. No worries.. I make sure I will power up and never more than I can afford.
Posted using Partiko Android
I believe that people pay too much attention to the price of steem. Of course it affects us all but Steem is totally different than most other cryptos out there. Most of the steem is not bought or sold for speculative reasons, it is bought or sold because we need it as a tool. The liquidity of the markets is totally different for steem than for other cryptos.
What I believe is that with lowering prices, the hardcore users and the ones who see all the potential that lies in steem feel it's an opportunity to take. I've been powering up constantly since day one I joined steem and I will continue to do so because I believe that steem is by far the most promising project on the net.
Everyone who bought while it was hard falling, now is already seeing some return, while the majority who decided it was time to be dumb and leave are now considering their decision...
I recently had to sell a couple of steems, but it was really a necessity.
I believe in blockchain and the work we are all doing together.
It's time to keep working, everyone with their own reach!
Hey @exyle, I have made a major realization today. The steem power up/power down mechanism is extremely bad for the price of steem, and is the main reason we have been loosing in ranking on coinmarketcap (yes staking is even worse than the 8% inflation!)
I am not an expert at tokenomics but I have an amazing track record (ironic) at buying or hodling on tops and selling at bottoms (or waiting to buy). In the past few years I have seen my portfolio go up 50X and down 95%. Also lost everything several times with leveraged trading.
Going all in is the worst kind of trading. It allows you to fomo at the top and panic at the bottom and sell everything. However, dollar cost averaging protects investors from their irrationality and creates market pressure for a longer time.
My main argument is that with STEEM, people are allowed to fomo in at the top. They can go all in. But they are not allowed to panic at the bottom. When they panic, they will press "Power down", and steem automatically forces them to dollar cost average over 13 weeks.
Since most people panic at the exact bottom it means that they will be able to sell every week when the steem price is boucing back up. They will get a better price then they would have otherwise. And this will create more selling of steem in terms of dollar volume. So it's really bad for the steem price.
For example, after the PORN airdrop on steem engine, everyone sold their tokens at once. The price crashed terribly. But people kept selling at extremely low prices, making the total dollar amount sold very low. Then the price jumped right back up.
Now imagine that the airdrop holders had only received 50% of their stake, and were going to receive the rest later. Then on the first airdrop day, the crash would look almost exactly the same in both cases, however they will keep selling every week at high prices after the airdrop making the selling pressure a lot higher!
I have a lot more arguments but I don't want this comment to be very long. I am considering writing a post about it, but I really want influential people on STEEM to see it. I thought about using bidbots, but meh... What do you suggest?
I know where you coming from and it's an interesting thought but frankly, there is not that much selling pressure anymore.
Currently, more people are powering up then down. There is almost no-one left besides Steemit inc. that can power down substantial amounts that haven't already done so.
A problem STEEM has is that there is hardly any volume. I expect this to change moving forward as the network gets bigger.
I'm taking these prices as an opportunity.
I saw that PORN token airdrop happen and the big selloff. I was buying them all the way to 0,03. (currently 0,17).
Opportunities on Steem happen every day. I have missed a fair bit of those but luckily also took some.
I saw that PORN token airdrop happen and the big selloff. I was buying them all the way to 0,03. (currently 0,17).
Question: Does that mean as an owner of Steem, I get these PORN drop tokens? If so, how I do I see what I've been allocated?
No, it was airdropped to PAL token holders only.
My point is not that there is more selling to come. I know more people are powering up now, but since 2017, steem went from rank 22 on coinmarketcap to rank 80. Above us there are coins with teams no longer developing.
Liquidity is a problem of course, but added to that is the fact that instead of getting rid of all the weak hands at once and at low prices, we’re allowing weak hands to sell at better prices and for longer times.
If instead we had an instant powerdown, people would have all sold when steem went to 22 cents the first time, and steem would have bounced back up to more than 45 cents. All altcoins went up a lot more on the rebound.
I know it’s part inflation, part steemit inc selling, but ehy keep a powerdown that is only acting against us?
Also @theycallmedan said multiple times that some investors don’t invest in steem because the powerdown is not instant. So it’s a win-win.
It’s not an easy concept to wrap our heads around, think about it.
But powering up, should be a commitment, because it gives power on the platform. So maybe we add a 2% fee for powering down, and now we also have an added sink. So many positives.
One person can up with a great idea before. Instant power downs with a 5% burn of the STEEM. Allowing people to skip the power down period but with a slight cost. It would fix this issue and also burn up STEEM making it a scarcer resource. I though that it was a brilliant solution.
That would be interesting solution @niallon11
Yes I agree. I think it was @theycallmedan. 5% is acceptable when normal powerdown remains an option. However i think it’s better to remove the normal powerdown and have 2% fee for powering down.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Removing the power-down time will also remove one of Steem's best security feature.
Hi @exyle, @marki99
Interesting discussion guys,
What about Steemit Inc? Aren't they creating main selling pressure? Would you perhaps know how much do they sell monthly? I tried to figure it out but failed.
That's very interesting to know. I was wondering if you know any site allowing me to see list of all accounts on STEEM blockchain with their STEEM balance and stake?
Just like https://steem-engine.com/?p=market&t=PAL ?
Yours,
Piotr
I think you would be interested in statistics from @penguinpablo. He does a weekly report with the largest powerups.
Also steemwhales.com (or steemitboard.com) allows you to rank users by their steem power.
I don’t how to see everyone’s liquid steem though. Especially if they keep it in an exchange, it would be impossible to check.
Posted using Partiko iOS
Late thank you for your valuable comment @marki99
Appreciate it a lot.
Yours, Piotr
I wouldn’t mind this being the bottom, but I also wouldn’t really mind the price going up soon. I don’t have too much options to buy more ( although I’m seriously considering to convert some other cryptocurrencies into Steem, now the steem price is still insanely low.
Thank you for ( the fact that you keep ) sharing your investing plans with us.
Groetjes uit Zwitserland!
Posted using Partiko iOS
It does seem that once the bottom could be formed, we could see a healthy bounce that can help the ecosystem in general. There seems like little resistance on the way up if demand comes back into the market and its supply.
Posted using Partiko iOS
I honestly think that becouse of your buying and confidence in this place you have contributed to this platform more then you think .....gived people hope and people stayed .... beside the other things/splinterlands :)
Dear @exyle
I fully agree, that calling the bottom now is a bit premature. Regardless if HF21 will go well, or will go wrong (possible) there is still very little trust within community towards Steemit Inc.
As long as they will be selling large amount of STEEM on monthly basis - this distrust will be only growing. TA cannot really show us future direction for that one particular reason. STNIC should be considered by us as a "market maker". If one player is so huge and is dumping tokens from time to time - then how can we believe in TA?
Major two things (for common user) that will change is:
a) non-linear reward curve - it will most likely "kill" culture of upvoting comments (time will tell).
b) 50/50 reward split - since PALnet seem to be leading in that direction we can already witness how does it really work. And so far it seem that 50/50 only create extra selling pressure, since curators are more willing to dump their easy earned PAL tokens. Can we expect different behaviour on Steemit? Why would we?
I'm full of hopes that HF21 will make things better, but right now I'm not very optimistic. I strongly believe that when it comes to PRICE steem has still long way to go (down).
ps. is there any way i could DM you? Do you use telegram by any chance?
Yours
Piotr