Ethereum trend, technical and fundamental analysis - a 6 month outlook

in #ethereum6 years ago

Quick search trend analysis of Ethereum vs Bitcoin;

Google searches for Ethereum are at a yearly low, 4% of peak searches (in December 2017), average since april 2018 has been about 9% of peak interest.

Bitcoin is likewise 5% of peak searches, 100% being in the aforementioned period.

Bitcoin is performing about 2% better since Jan 2019 (relative to peak) than Eth is, somewhat expected being the face of crypto.

one can deduce that searches are indicative of general public's interest (and thus sentiment).


Eth is currently about 19% of the market cap of bitcoin, but it's volume is 47% of BTC. (IN USD)

ETH total transaction on chain avg around 600k/day for the past 7 days, BTC BTC is around 375k.

Considering that volume in USD for ETH is comparatively high on exchanges (even compared historically with high public interest), one can deduce two things:
There's lot of institutional money flowing around right now (larger sums at once but less individuals)
Volume being manipulated.


Personal viewpoint being it's likely volume is mostly supported by 'larger players'; knowing historically they have been involved prior to big price movements (usually prior to bull runs - bull runs then supported by retail investors FOMOing), it could suggest an indicator of pre-bull run market.

This somewhat supports the long term technicals suggesting bull run is due soon, (i.e science guys), short term analysis (Holding 140), and fundamental news of Serenity being relatively close to release (and value increase from POS should it be successful).

With this in mind, I personally am very bullish in the next 6month window.

Thoughts, contradictions/ elaborations guys?

sources;
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=ethereum
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&geo=US&q=bitcoin
https://ambcrypto.com/ethereum-eth-takes-another-step-towards-serenity-with-new-testnet-update/
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactions.html
https://coinmarketcap.com/

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