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RE: ETHEREUM (ETH) ZigZag of Higher Degree of Trend Looks Exciting!
Haejin, how are we supposed to justify so many alts way under their 200 MAs (bear sign after extended bull run) when the only time they successfully bounced was early 2017 in similar situation?
Every correction ends and so shall this and using pattern/EW waves are my tools to gauge the terminal ends so as to cast the buy ladders. Terminal ends of corrections are the most ideal entry points, IMHO.
Thank you. It is getting interesting that you are one of the last still predicting any sort of bull season or major upward correction (10k+). Any special justification now that the rest of the cryptosphere are really convinced we're bearish, since 8k-7.3k didn't hold so well?
The problem with this statement is that haejin is assuming it is a correction. I strongly believe it is a long-term down trend, I mean look at this:
All-time 61.8% retracement level looks very unlikely to hold, at what point do you accept that we are trending downwards instead of living in a fantasy world?
It annoys me so much because all haejin's followers will blindly accept his view that we are still going up long-term if they keep HODLing. If you are willing to wait years then HODL away... but why go against the trend when it is clearly downwards?
There will be a point where miners will have to calculate the "worth it" calc and decide to turn off some of their servers. The availability and demand will catch up and price will stabilize. It may go laterally for some time or the scam and tethers news will cause more downside but overall the supply demand structure will moderate the price.
I have a question, and I'm not at all an expert on speculation or on gain and loss precictions based on past trends over a long period of time. I have always been one to get in early when there's an ICO that I feel will blow up fairly quick, or to kinda slip in and invest when the bottom falls out on a coin that I'm confident will rebound fairly quick or at least certainly.
That said, bitcoin has been known to dramatically decline after experiencing rapid growth, right. Maybe not at the same level of volume as recently, but my question is, isn't the patern of always bouncing back after a big drop established enough to make it probable? Or has there been other factors that have affected the value and demand of current and future investors? Why do you feel so strongly that there's no decent gain or comeback in store for bitcoin in the next year?
Getting in on investments when the value has dropped this drastically has worked pretty well for me...on coins with far less worth of course. Sometimes it's just inevitable that after a big fall, there's not really much else it can do but increase. Im obviously really interested in how patterns work in the marketplace in almost a natural occurance kind of way. You guys talk like you know a lot more about this kinda stuff than I currently do, as far as on long-term trends maybe.
Well I believe that Bitcoin has only ever had two bubbles, one which started in October of 2013, peaked at the end of November 2013 and finished bursting/crashing around January 2015. Prices then stayed within the $200 to $400 range for about 10 months. You can see that here:
You can also see at the right hand side of that chart the most recent crazy run up to 20k. So I believe this shows that there have only been two actual bubbles for Bitcoin ever.
Now what happens after most bubbles in financial markets? Well simply put confidence doesn't rebound up from panic over night. It takes time for the general public to forget about all the people who lost their life savings, or just a lot of money in general from the horrific crash from 20k to 6k.
Above shows the NASDAQ took about as long to hit all-time highs again as it took for the bubble to play out. If we compare this to the current Bitcoin Bubble...
This bubble has been playing out for about 15 months now and will most likely be at least another month until we hit true bottom I think. Let's say we bottom in a month, that's 16 months it took to play out. So I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a year to hit $20,000 again.
My belief is that all bubbles play out roughly the same because human nature is pretty much a constant. So if the Bitcoin bubble is similar to the NASDAQ bubble (and as I say it should be because both markets are based on human nature), then it could take us a year or more to see $20,000 again (if we ever do see that again of course, nothing in investing is guaranteed).
The first bubble in Bitcoin seemed to follow this general pattern in that it took 17 months for the bubble to play out and about 2 years to see all-time high prices again.
Obviously these numbers are just general and not some specific formula, but the overall point is that a bubble doesn't just occur, top out, and then crash and zoom back up to all-time highs... It takes a fair amount of time before confidence comes back into the market, this is just human nature. So I am not saying to people don't HODL, but if you are HODLing expect to wait up to a year to see profit if you bought at the top.
Let me know what you think @rettigphotos
Man that is majorly helpful to have someone as knowledgeable as you seem to be answer my exact questions completely with graphs and charts. Thanks for the breakdown. I followed you as well, I'm looking get back into bitcoin before it sees any real gains and was contemplating investing now, but it sounds like you're thinking that we haven't hit bottom. Getting in when they bottom out is what I try to do...I don't know what the techniques are in the industry but has worked for me personally. Everything I know about cryptocurrency, trading on the exchanges and when to make which moves I learned on my own since buying my first bitcoins in several years back when they were at $5.25 a piece. I had no use for them really, I just thought the whole mining process was cool and believed that they would be valuable in the future. Everyone I told what I was into thought I was crazy playing with toy money and so on. Lol I live in a place where there's not a soul other than me familiar with digital currency. Thanks for answering my questions.