Trying to forecast the market; ETH, EOS, ICO and more letter soup
I am not a big time investor but I know about tech. So here is my forecast regarding this EOS and how it might play out:
EOS will make ETH prices higher. Whoever wants to buy EOS need to pass thru ETH. Ethereum community should be very happy about this.
At the end the contract will be frozen. As far as I understand people will get their EOS on the real EOS block chain with a key. That means all the bougth ETH will stay in Ethereum and wont be sold. There won't be a pressure to decrease ETH price.
With ETH price so much high, people will have trouble believing in EOS just by looking at market cap. Lets face it not everybody can understand the tech behind.
Take the case of litecoin. Even though it has broader decentralization because it is mined with GPU, hence persons doing it, faster blocks, greater capacity, it stayed like a silver compared to bitcoin gold. The fear of bitcoin community failing, made it gain more cap lately. Yes, fear is the most powerful emotion for humans.
Going back to EOS ICO, I wrote this in a comment, I will copy:
I think there will be huge flow of cap during first 5 days looking at the current ICO bonanza. Immediately after 5 days there will be new buyers in exchanges who cant use metamask. So that may even move the price further up. After that frenzy the minting in the following days will be like an "inflation" to EOS, keeping the price in exchanges don't appreciate much. Or it may go down as well.. Thats when I want to buy some. But in the long run people will realize this is eth disruptor and market will be bullish overall.
1 year is a long term. Maybe we will see some ICOs failing, some projects going south, even the global economy going south. ICO bubble may burst in 1 year. Starting with ETH people will escape from block chain in that case.
I predict most PoW based chains will be very inefficient and die in the long run.
You can fork the code but you can't fork the community. Good community and governance can be more valuable than source code. I think EOS also has one of the good communities out there.
-- None of this is investment advice! --
so it means this is the right time to invest into ether as prices will continue to rise and sell once close to EOS ICO date !
noone knows really. those are one of the probabilities. reality can be more interesting than fiction sometimes.
Or we can make the ETH bubble pop first before starting the ICO so that there's plenty of space for price rise. That's what I hope would happen. Also, make the time span shorter to perhaps 6 months.