The New Space Nations' Delicate Politics
Take a peek at the summer headlines. Massive flooding in Europe, Turkey, China, and Southeast Asia; wildfires and heatwaves in North America; and temperatures in Siberia hitting a record 48°C. According to The Economist, "there is no secure refuge in a +3°C planet." There is a greater need for information than ever before in order to foresee the repercussions of this new era of recurring extreme climatic phenomena. It entails amassing additional data in order to scan the changing globe and forecast its impacts on food supplies, rising sea levels, ice-sheet depletion, methane release, and human and economic disasters.
Until now, the most effective method of monitoring the Earth has been from orbit.
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Space now has its own version of Moore's law. At the very least in theory. The cost of getting a kilogramme into orbit continues to decline gradually, owing to a thriving private sector powered by significant amounts of capital. The assembly of multi-purpose payloads has essentially become commoditized, with scores of businesses churning out satellites at a rate comparable to that of automobiles, utilising off-the-shelf components and sensors whose performance continues to improve at an unparalleled rate. They rely on a burgeoning satellite launch industry, driven by SpaceX, which puts hundreds of "birds" into orbit at a time for third-party customers (see the first episode of the series).
In theory, there should be no impediments to universal space democratisation. Only a few countries were able to support a space programme a decade ago. Over 70 countries now have one. They range from full asset ownership and production in-house to leasing imaging or data collection capabilities to third-party operators.
However, a closer examination reveals significant discrepancies, as some nations excel at maximising collaboration and getting the most bang for their money, while others lag behind.
I chatted with Tala Atie, senior analyst at PwC and co-author of a reference research on rising space states, to gain a better understanding of this.
“To begin, it is critical to distinguish between developed and developing states when discussing emerging nations. This is not the same field of play.
Numerous members of the industrialised world have recognised that satellite technology enable them to increase agricultural yields, control natural disasters, and improve communications, particularly in remote locations. There is no doubt that access to telehealth or e-education services benefits society as a whole.
Everything in this industry has improved significantly in terms of accessibility. The know-how is no longer confined to a small number of countries. Now, you can pool several resources and rely on the commercial sector, which reduces the cost of space travel. In many countries, the public sector has lost its hegemony. Today, it serves as a facilitator for private businesses.
Simultaneously, other countries in the developing world, such as Nigeria or Gabon, are attempting to create small satellites. Some do not have spacecraft, but they begin by utilising commercially accessible data”.
National space policies oscillate between a heavy reliance on "resources as a service" and complete ownership of assets. Occasionally, additional considerations enter the equation, such as the concept of sovereignty or pure political ego (which usually correlates with the level of the autocracy of the regime).
Tala Atie notes Egypt in the PwC research as an example of a country that decided decades ago to establish its own programme, primarily for political and strategic reasons. It resulted in some successes, with Egypt becoming the first African country to have its own direct television satellite in 1998, but also in some setbacks, with numerous satellites being lost or malfunctioning. As a result of these failures, the government had difficulty retaining engineers. Now, the country's space programme appears to be on track, mostly as a result of strong international cooperation with Russia and China – Beijing is leveraging its space knowledge to exert influence in a number of countries (more on this in a future episode of the series).
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When I asked Tala Atie for an example of an emerging space nation with a well-thought-out policy, she cited the United Arab Emirates:
“It is vital to collaborate on areas of expertise. The UAE has a really clever approach, which they implemented in collaboration with the European Union, South Korea, and several other countries. However, they were able to maintain and expand upon the know-how they obtained. The UAE launched its first satellite entirely made domestically in 2018. [In February 2021, the UAE became the fifth country to launch a probe to Mars and the first Arab country to have an astronaut stationed on the International Space Station.]
The UAE, I believe, has the best strategy in this area, since they engage extensively with others while developing their own sector, teaching and retaining engineers, and establishing research institutes through collaboration and partnerships. For example, they send its engineers to international research centres and invite foreign researchers as well. They possess financial resources and prudently invest them in the development of an ambitious multidisciplinary space programme.
By contrast, if a government chooses to outsource everything, it may miss out on the full benefits of space access, such as developing an industry capable of manufacturing components, data handling capabilities, infrastructure, and eventually satellite design. Again, this equilibrium is critical; it must be mutual”.
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It will be fascinating to see how things unfold between emerging states capable of organising successful cooperation and technology transfers and those that stay reliant on the Western world.
Previous times of exploration competition have resulted in decades-long looting of natural resources in countries like as Sub-Saharan Africa or Southeast Asia. Significant profit was taken while exploited countries were unable — and in some cases, prevented — from obtaining sovereignty in the management of their natural resources. This is a warning tale for rising space states.
The series' next episode (planned for August 9) will discuss the fundraising of new space enterprises, which raised $7 billion in 2020, more than double the amount raised the previous year.
Keep an eye out and subscribe to the Monday Note and, if you speak French, Episodiqu.es.