⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 37) ⚽️
The numbers
Note: I've been asked this question so I thought I would clarify that the prediction column just means the most likely correct score. If you want to know if a game will likely finish Over/Under 2.5 goals, you can assume that a Tot G figure of 2.5+ means likely over 2.5 goals and vice versa.
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | Man United | 0.92 | 1.46 | 2.39 | -0.54 |
| Stoke | Crystal Palace | 1.22 | 1.31 | 2.53 | -0.08 |
| Bournemouth | Swansea | 1.51 | 0.91 | 2.42 | 0.59 |
| Leicester | West Ham | 1.82 | 1.09 | 2.91 | 0.74 |
| Watford | Newcastle | 1.26 | 1.19 | 2.45 | 0.06 |
| West Brom | Tottenham | 0.84 | 1.58 | 2.42 | -0.75 |
| Everton | Southampton | 1.39 | 1.05 | 2.43 | 0.34 |
| Man City | Huddersfield | 2.79 | 0.55 | 3.34 | 2.24 |
| Arsenal | Burnley | 1.62 | 0.93 | 2.54 | 0.69 |
| Chelsea | Liverpool | 1.50 | 1.28 | 2.78 | 0.22 |
| Swansea | Southampton | 1.15 | 1.00 | 2.16 | 0.15 |
| Chelsea | Huddersfield | 1.98 | 0.60 | 2.57 | 1.38 |
| Leicester | Arsenal | 1.63 | 1.46 | 3.09 | 0.17 |
| Man City | Brighton | 2.81 | 0.55 | 3.36 | 2.25 |
| Tottenham | Newcastle | 1.91 | 0.95 | 2.86 | 0.96 |
| West Ham | Man United | 0.97 | 1.88 | 2.85 | -0.91 |
Summary
- Man City are the banker of the gameweek (vs Brighton) with a GS value of 2.25
- Swansea vs Southampton is expected to be a tight, low-scoring affair with a total of just 2.16 goals predicted
Bet of the week
Pick & writeup TBA...
Bet of the week running total:
| Bets | Won | Push | Lost | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -0.95 |
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:
B&H Albion +0.75
Leicester -0.25
WBA +1.25
Huddersfield +2.75
Burnley +1
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
, resteem 
and
Nice :)
I'd filled out my predictions for @acidyo's weekly post prior to reading this and I'm going against you with just 1 result!
Stoke - Crystal Palace 2
Bournemouth - Swansea 1
Leicester - West Ham 1
Watford - Newcastle x
West Brom - Spurs 2
Everton - Southampton x
Man City - Huddersfield 1
Arsenal - Burnley 1
Chelsea - Liverpool 1
Let's see!
I think that's a fair variation, and I do think with Newcastle they are absolutely capable of shutting teams down and getting away draws. At this stage of the season it's extremely difficult to predict games with a high degree of accuracy, as motivation isn't always there. Good luck!
Yeah for sure. Lots of these games tend to fizzle out into none events, and the '6 pointers' end up bore draws too.
Saying that, it's the premier league and one early event can lead to a 4-4! :D Cheers!
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