⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 35) ⚽️
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom | Liverpool | 0.85 | 1.78 | 2.63 | -0.93 |
| Watford | Crystal Palace | 1.46 | 1.20 | 2.66 | 0.26 |
| Arsenal | West Ham | 2.29 | 1.01 | 3.30 | 1.28 |
| Stoke | Burnley | 1.01 | 1.19 | 2.20 | -0.18 |
| Man City | Swansea | 2.48 | 0.50 | 2.99 | 1.98 |
| Everton | Newcastle | 1.26 | 1.18 | 2.44 | 0.08 |
Summary
- Man City are the banker of the week with a GS value of 1.98
- The game with the most goals predicted is Arsenal vs West Ham with an average of 3.30
Bet of the week
It's now the part of the season where we get some "funny" results, as teams lose and gain motivation depending on their current situation. So let's see if we can exploit that this week...
If you've been following my bets, you'll have noticed a trend - that I tend to go with the underdog! Well this week is pretty much the epitome of an underdog bet :).
Man City vs Swansea, key pointers:
- Against similar level teams to Swansea at home, City have won by 3+ goals in 5/8 games
- Swansea against the top 6 however, have only lost by 3+ goals away from home once (5-0 vs Liverpool), and even managed a 0-0 draw vs Spurs.
- H2H: This fixture last season finished 2-1 to City, whilst the game in Wales this season finished 0-4 to City.
- Motivation: Swansea are fighting for their lives in 17th place, whilst Man City have just won the league, been knocked out of the CL, and will be focusing on the World Cup
In summary, it's clear that City could blow Swansea away if they wanted to, but as the motivation may not be there I think Swansea are a great bet on the +2.5 handicap.
Bet of the week: Swansea +2.5AH @ 1.91 (Pinnacle)
Bet of the week running total:
| Bets | Won | Push | Lost | P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | +0.05 |
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
, resteem 
and
Well according to me, you are already heavenly involved into statistical betting. You just didn't follow your own model :(
This were my prediction for the games you listed:
Overview
Detailed
Per Games
Bet of the week result: LOSS ✖
Two City goals in the first 16mins of the game killed Swansea's motivation, and from then on they were just trying to keep the score down (they even failed at that!)
Bet of the week running total: