⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 33) ⚽️

The numbers

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Supr
Everton	Liverpool	1.08	1.91	2.99	-0.83
Bournemouth	Crystal Palace	1.55	1.13	2.68	0.41
Brighton	Huddersfield	1.33	0.89	2.22	0.45
Leicester	Newcastle	1.48	1.09	2.57	0.39
Stoke	Tottenham	0.83	1.91	2.74	-1.07
Watford	Burnley	1.13	1.08	2.21	0.05
West Brom	Swansea	1.20	0.86	2.06	0.34
Man City	Man United	1.70	0.89	2.59	0.81
Arsenal	Southampton	2.04	0.87	2.90	1.17
Chelsea	West Ham	2.27	0.83	3.10	1.44

Summary

• My banker of the week is Chelsea with a goal supremacy value of 1.44
• (!) Despite Liverpool having a goal supremacy value of 0.83 vs Everton, their first team is likely to be rested
• (!) Man City may also rest players for their CL fixture on Tuesday, but as their squad is so strong, I expect they'll still have enough to win the title at home

Bet of the week

This bet is an unusual one for me, as it's not really a stats-based tip, but instead circumstantial. Everton face Liverpool in the early kick-off tomorrow, but it almost certainly won't be the Liverpool team we're used to seeing, as their huge 2nd-leg Quarter Final against Man City is only on Tuesday. Klopp has been vocal about his annoyance at having to play this game so close to both CL games, and has heavily hinted he will have to rotate the team.

The lineup itself is almost impossible to predict, but I'm going to try anyway!

             Mignolet
           
Clyne - Lovren - Masterson - Moreno

Chamberlain - Henderson - Wijnaldum

      Ings - Solanke - Firmino

EDIT: As Woodburn is apparently injured, I've brought Firmino in for him

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With Liverpool resting players, Everton should be able to achieve at least a draw in front of their own fans, and at almost evens to do so this seems a good bet.

Bet: Everton +0.5 (AH) @ 1.98 (188BET)

Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:

Everton +0.5
Huddersfield +0.5
Stoke City +1.5
WBA Under 2
West Ham +1.75

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

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