⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 32) ⚽️

The numbers

The methods used to generate these are:

• Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
• Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)

The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.

Copy/pastable table version

Home	Away	Home GE	Away GE	Tot G	G Supr
Crystal Palace	Liverpool	1.07	1.87	2.94	-0.80
Brighton	Leicester	1.26	1.22	2.48	0.04
Man United	Swansea	1.89	0.62	2.51	1.28
Newcastle	Huddersfield	1.46	0.88	2.34	0.58
Watford	Bournemouth	1.47	1.29	2.76	0.18
West Brom	Burnley	0.99	0.95	1.95	0.04
West Ham	Southampton	1.35	1.08	2.43	0.27
Everton	Man City	0.85	2.07	2.92	-1.22
Arsenal	Stoke	2.32	0.90	3.22	1.42
Chelsea	Tottenham	1.36	1.11	2.47	0.24

Summary

• My banker of the week is Arsenal with a goal supremacy value of 1.42
• The highest scoring game is expected to be Arsenal vs Stoke with a total goal expectancy value of 3.22
• There are two tight games this week, both with a goal supremancy difference of just 0.04: Brighton vs Leicester and West Brom vs Burnley

Bet of the week

This week, there's the definition of a relegation six-pointer, with 17th place West Ham meeting 18th placed Southampton! Both sides are greatly underperforming this season, and have new managers trying to save their teams from relegation (Moyes and Hughes). They both lost 3-0 in their most recent PL game too, but West Ham were unlucky not to be ahead in the first half, and their second half collapse was partly due to a crowd invasion that the players and manager have since admitted disrupted their focus. James Collins in a recent interview stated "I think the trip’s (six-day break to Florida) going to have a positive effect and coming back here now, there’s a buzz about the place."

Southampton on the other hand were deservedly beaten by Newcastle which led to the sacking of Pellegrino. Hughes has come in, beating Wigan 0-2 in the FA Cup in his first game, so it's possible the mood could have improved in the Saints' camp. However, against a West Ham side who are fighting for their lives in front of their own fans, this is going to be a different proposition.

West Ham's home record is: W5-D4-L5
Southampton's away record is: W2-D6-L6

With so much at stake, I expect Hughes will set his team up "not to lose". West Ham will be nervous too, considering their position and recent events. I think though, being able to take West Ham on the draw-no-bet as the home team at odds above evens presents some value.

Bet: West Ham +0 (AH) @ 2.07 (BetVictor)

Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:

Crystal Palace +1
Swansea +1.5
West Ham +0
Everton +1.5
Stoke City +1.5

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and bets this week!

Adam (acelad)

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