⚽️ English Premier League Goal Expectancies & Bet of the week (Gameweek 28) ⚽️
Here are my goal expectancies for EPL matches in GW28.
The numbers
The methods used to generate these are:
- Goals scored/conceded home/away last season + this season (weighted for % through season)
- Total shots and shots-on-target ratio (this season)
The GEs produced from the above methods are then averaged to give the above results.
Copy/pastable table version
| Home | Away | Home GE | Away GE | Tot G | G Supr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester | Stoke | 1.951083372 | 0.9996398488 | 2.95072322 | 0.9514435227 |
| Bournemouth | Newcastle | 1.490618091 | 1.18142754 | 2.67204563 | 0.309190551 |
| Brighton | Swansea | 1.248647859 | 0.9324044279 | 2.181052287 | 0.3162434312 |
| Burnley | Southampton | 1.090861529 | 0.8139400136 | 1.904801543 | 0.2769215159 |
| Liverpool | West Ham | 2.543971251 | 0.9203290547 | 3.464300306 | 1.623642196 |
| West Brom | Huddersfield | 1.433185477 | 0.858169362 | 2.291354838 | 0.5750161146 |
| Watford | Everton | 1.666767861 | 1.345413096 | 3.012180957 | 0.321354765 |
| Man United | Chelsea | 1.383272459 | 1.029216134 | 2.412488593 | 0.3540563242 |
| Crystal Palace | Tottenham | 0.9443072831 | 1.761738411 | 2.706045694 | -0.8174311274 |
| Arsenal | Man City | 1.496851382 | 1.877807496 | 3.374658878 | -0.380956114 |
Summary
- My banker for this week is Liverpool with a goal supremacy value of 1.62.
- I predict the highest scoring game to be Liverpool vs West Ham with a total Goal Expectancy of 3.46 (most likely scores are 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 in that order)
- Burnley vs Southampton looks to be the lowest scoring game with a Goal Expectancy of just 1.9. My prediction is a tight 1-0 win for Burnley.
Bet of the week
Crystal Palace vs Tottenham
Analysis: Since Hodgson took over at Crystal Palace on 12th September 2017, they have only lost twice out of 11 games, and neither were by more than a single goal. This includes against teams of a comparable level to Spurs: Man City (0-0), Arsenal (2-3) and Chelsea (2-1).
Crystal Palace's home record since Hodgson took over:
Spurs are still an extremely dangerous team of course, and at their best can dominate against any team, even away from home. In fact, I was at Anfield a couple weeks ago when Spurs fought back twice to grab a vital point as it finished 2-2. They did the same against Juventus in the CL.
Bet: 1pt Crystal Palace +1 (AH) @ 2.16 (BetVictor)
Finally, the Asian Handicap picks I've gone for in @costanza's awesome weekly competition are:
Leicester Over 2.5
Burnley +0
West Ham +1.75
Watford Over 2.5
Crystal Palace +1
Thanks for reading, and good luck with your FPL and/or bets this week!
Adam (acelad)
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and
An excellent analysis @acelad.
Regarding Tottenham, they are a strange bunch. With their fixtures (Rochdale & Juventus) I can see them under-performing on Sunday. I'm still torn between X&BTTS and 1&BTTS :-)
Thanks @beat-the-bookies! Is 1X&BTTS an option? :)
@4.00? Too short for me :-)
Bet of the week result: Palace 0-1 Spurs (push)
An 88th minute winner from Kane means I have to settle for a push bet here, but in truth the bet was never really in danger of losing, so I'm satisfied with that. In hindsight, waiting to place the bet until closer to KO would have been a better option though, as Spurs steamed in massively. I may have gone for +1.25 at around evens in that case.
Spurs are in a rich vein of form, but I'll get my revenge by betting on Juventus &BTTS @6.50 :-)
You got a 36.62% upvote from @minnowvotes courtesy of @acelad!
8.98% @pushup from @acelad
Your goals expectancies did go through, Liverpool match had equal goals with Brighton Vs Swansea and even bournmouth Vs Newcastle while Watford and everton produce the least goals.