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RE: First thoughts about the proposed EOS token sale
but that's also why you'll have a year to buy them, and perhaps at some point, inevitably, a hiccup of one sort or another will give a better opportunity to pick some up than just the first day they're released
Possibly. But also, a project like this will hopefully be progressing, gaining steam and publicity as the year goes on. And then the exchange markets will potentially have it listed at the same time. I'm really not sure how that plays price wise. My guess would be after the initial burst, there could be some good buying time.
It's going to be very very interesting to watch how the crowdsale price interacts with the market price. They'll be the same, of course - but which will drive the other?
Would you potentially see most buying occurring at the end of each period? It would be riskier to buy early and then possibly have massive buy orders come in after you and dilute how many EOS you get for that round. Waiting to end and buying on "slower" days would seem like the more immediately obvious strategy. This would then favour those technically proficient enough to build sniper bots to execute buy orders right at the very last possible moment if the conditions are favourable and the crowdsale price is predicted to be lower than the current market price.
On average, after the initial 5-day period, the crowdsale price will be exactly equal to the market price. On average, for an appropriate definition of average.
You're thus pretty safe contributing at the beginning of the period. On average, you're perfectly safe. At then end of the period it's a little asymmetric - you'll either know for sure that it's a bad price or you'll be uncertain whether it's a good price or not. Thus, you have more information at the end than at the beginning and this should mean you're better off waiting till the end.
I saw that happening during the MUSE/PEERTRACKS sale!
Snipers at the end of a period