The election is so close that there really ain't much difference here between the 538 forecast and this when it comes down to it.

Nate Silver's 2024 presidential forecast is now out. His initial probability is Trump with a 65.7% chance to win. That's similar to the Economist's model.

He's got Kennedy winning electoral votes in 5% of simulations. That seems impossibly bizarre. But fwiw the old FiveThirtyEight model had similarly long tails. I think it is just a byproduct of his conservative modeling.

He claims it is more or less like the old 538 model with some tweaks.

I mean there should be anxiety if the probabilities were flipped. This is going to be a close election. It was in 2016 and was in 2020. I would be skeptical if a model suggested anything else in either direction as nothing in the recent past elections, current polling, or fundamentals suggest otherwise.