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RE: #Discussion: Is Bitcoin In A Bubble? Or Not?

in #discussion7 years ago (edited)

Thank you for summing things up @sadekj. Nice opportunity to comment:

A bubble indeed

  1. This could be a valid point if it can be backed up with data. However, speculation and store of value are also uses for a currency.
  2. Price manipulation is most likely quite rife in bitcoin land (as can happen in fiat land). Would be interesting to see a study on it.
  3. Isn't this somewhat the case for most present currencies? Or rather, it is all based on trust, as pointed out by Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank chief president, Patrick Harker just recently. Bitcoin is most certainly backed by many many parties who are very much invested in its future (developers, minders, exchanges, people who run the nodes on the network etc.)
  4. Software is indeed vulnerable to bugs and hacking, and this is perhaps one of the points I think is most valid. However, the hacking that is most often pointed to is not hacking of bitcoin, but supporting software, which is something all financial institutions are vulnerable to. And just like with fiat currency it is most certainly possible to let financial institutions take care of your bitcoins for you, if you are not able to secure them yourself.
  5. This is indeed a huge concern. It is hard to outright ban bitcoin, as it is a software enabled by cryptography on the internet, and there'd be many ways of avoiding bans. It is very possible to ban its official use though, which would greatly undermine its utility and leave it, more likely zcash or somesuch to the illegal and black markets. Seeing how for example Japan is instead regulating it, this does not seem to be a likely future though, not for all of the world anyway.
  6. This has apparently been researched and found invalid. See point 5 though.

Bitcoin is not a bubble

  1. Bitcoin with its huge mining pools might not be the best example of this, but there are plenty of other cryptocurrencies showing great potential.
  2. A limited supply also means that in the distant future the supply will start shrinking as people loose their coins. I don't really think it is so relevant whether it is constant or rising, as long as it is redictable (haven't thought this very well through though).
  3. Remember that bitcoin has competition though, but cryptocurrencies on the whole are indeed just starting.
  4. Bitcoin is software, software has bugs, why can it not be hacked?
  5. Replace "bitcoin" with "cryptocurrencies".
  6. Replace "bitcoin" with "cryptocurrencies".
  7. I am not so sure current ICO really are proof of a new economy.
  8. Very important point, but perhaps not so much an argument for the high price of a bitcoin.
  9. The economy behind mining has indeed fueled bitcoin and its use. It is not sustainable though.
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Thank you, @guttormf for the thoughtful comment. It could have been an article itself. 100% upvoted!

Of course, I disagree with some of your points. I will explain my views soon in separate comments. Then I will come back ant reply to your points.

I didn't think it was "of course" that you disagree with me ;-)

Yes.. that is right replace "bitcoin" with cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is intended as a prototype of blockchain technology. It supposed to be developed. Nice point of view :)

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