World Cup 2018: who has a better chance of celebrating success?

Mundial rushes to Russia, regardless of all obstacles and objective and subjective obstacles. Maybe they will finish the stadium in Samara, sharpen the infrastructure, and the people and organizations in charge of Russia will be the best ready to receive the flow of foreign guests.

The speech in this post will not be at all about the political interests surrounding the upcoming tournament, and not about the intrigue at the highest level, but (surprisingly) about the sport. And if it is really appropriate - about sports statistics. I have already said that I breathe very unevenly, especially on the eve of major international football contests.

So which team has many chances to win, and become a world champion?

Input parameters are very important for forecasting. No, you can of course really believe in the Nigerian or Iceland national team, but you have to understand what to guide, so that faith is not your only assumption. We will throw it away, and we will first concentrate on the composition of the team their coach will take to Russia.

The more players practice in their championships, and international tournaments like the Champions League or Europa League, the more likely that players will be in sufficient tones and will have confidence in their abilities. The main structure of the Spanish national football team, part of the players of the earliest possible team in the World Cup in their club matches is much higher than the other team - 81%.

Thus, footballer Furies Roch takes part in four fifths of all their club matches - you will agree, it says a lot about the level of players for the 2010 champions.

For the Spaniards running the entire team galaxy, not by reaching 80, but 70% stepping - then you and Brazil (78), and Germany (73), England (74), Belgium (73) Switzerland (74), Denmark, Japan, Nigeria, Senegal, Sweden, and ... Russia. Yes, our players take part in 72% of all their club meetings - not very bad, and should show the appropriate level of physical fitness. The key word is. In comparison, our rivals in the group have much simpler numbers - 63% of Uruguay, 64% - from Egypt, and 55 - from Saudi Arabia.

But if the prediction is made, by focusing exclusively on the number of matches held, the Berezutsky brothers and Ignashevich will be persuaded to return to the national team. The high percentage of the performance of the Russian collection in the championship should always multiply with this championship level - however, this applies to all teams.

This coefficient is calculated by CIES based on FIFA rankings and its own formula - and according to him, Spain is even more advanced. It should be understood that this is not an example - because the Spaniards are not only at home, but about the average number in the House. Compare with Furia units can, of course, the owner of the largest number of talented players who regularly get the exercises at the top level. Brazil, France, England, Germany, Belgium, Argentina, Croatia, Portugal - immigrants from these countries who set the tone in world football.

Brazil, France, England, Germany, Belgium, Argentina, Croatia, Portugal - immigrants from these countries who set the tone in world football. The Russian team is in the middle of the list, with a specific coefficient of 0.78, just one overtaking Danish and Polish. The leader of our group on this indicator - Uruguay, Saudi Arabia is very low (0.42), and Egypt lasts up to 0.55 - due to unmanageable Salah, of course.

When the coefficients are added, the top five competitors for the title are: Spain, Brazil, France, Germany, England. I can bet that championship winners will come from their number, but who exactly - I can not answer. But I will bet on Brazil, I do not believe in the Spaniards, though as strong as they are.

As for the possibilities of the Russian team, I believe that they can get out of the group, but it will not be easy. Saudi Arabia must win at one gate, nothing to talk about. With Uruguay, there is little chance - the team is doing exceptional selection, and generally looks very serious. There is still a dispute with Egypt - and here the first place can go to Mohammad Salah's facto. Unfortunately, we do not have a single player who can overcome the Liverpool attack machine - unless Cherchesov reconciles with Denisov (and he does not reconcile).

However, here Salah does not have Firmino, Ramsey, or Sana with Chamberlain - no one to supply the fine equipment of golodor. Of course, he himself can make himself out of nothing - but, the whole match can not be pulled out to him alone. If Stanislav Salamovich finds a solution to the problem with Salah's guidance, at least in part - it will be the app for withdrawal from the group. And it's very important to get out - still at home we play, because in any way.

So, I wear Brazil. I would be happy with the reader's predictions - maybe and be true.

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