Killing Budweiser

Ever get that feeling you think you put your finger on something but there's something that still not sitting right. As much as I thought this was a case of political rivalry between campaign camps I just couldn't give that much credence to DeSantis, I trust him as much as I trust Trump. (Which if I had posted this last night I'd miss the DeSantis announcement today that he was thinking about suing AB for not properly addressing the controversary over Mulvaney. His claim was it jeopardized the investment of the pension funds Florida has invested in AB. Maybe the initial drop but shares, thanks to Modelo are up 32%.) Which give some credence to the next sentence I had wrote last night. Wholeheartedly I believe the parties are working in unison with each other and viewing it any other way broke that conviction. So I had to keep digging. Money is always a motivating factor but fact check after fact check of people telling me I was wrong that AB inBev was just trying to increase profits by importing a beer that was less expensive to manufacture. Actually it was the amount of busy fact checkers out there that convinced me I was right. You query for it and you are hit with fact check, fact check, fact check. When the media is hell bent on fact checking you you know somethings up with that. Than I ran across something on Fool . com. I surmised at that point I was more right about the money issue than the fact checkers would lead you to believe. Just because AB didn't hold the rights to Modelo in the US doesn't mean this wasn't about money.

In 2021 AB had a huge net debt position. (total debt minus cash and equivalents) of 87.4 billion as of the last quarter. This limits it's ability to return cash to shareholders over the long term. It traded at 13.7 times it's 2019 earning, which isn't expensive on it's face, but once you consider the massive debt load and the fact that beer sales volumes declined in 2019, it is hard to find reason to be optimistic about the stock over the next few years. <a href = https:www.fool.com/investing/2021/01/22/should-atria-group-sell-its-stake-in-anheuser-bush">

If Altria sold it's 10% shares at current market prices it would be worth thirteen billion dollars.

Repurhasing of shares (another word for buy backs) at high level would reduce the number of shares outstanding, increasing earnings per share (EPS) assuming net income stays flat or grows over that period of time.

Worth around 13.5 billion, Altria's stake in AB accounts for 17% of the company's current 76.6 billion market cap. If Altria sells it's shares it could return capitol to shareholders in the form of share buyback which likely would provide better returns than holding onto a stake in a low growth business.

I am not much in stock lingo but it sort of makes sense this could be about driving down the number of shareholders but at that incredible amount of debt AB was in that seemed like a monumental endeavor. AB it would seem would have to keep putting out Mulvaney videos to achieve any significant debt reduction goals. I decided to see if I could find the justice department agreement between Constellation Brands, AB inBev and Grupo Modelo and I hit a much more milder bingo.

In that agreement it allows for AB inBev to sign interim agreements with Constellation to ensure the expansion and growth of Modelo products inside the US.

Constellation has committed to expand the capacity of Piedras Negras in order to meet current and future demand for the Modelo brands in the United States, and that commitment is a condition of the proposed settlement. The settlement also sets milestones for the expansion of the Piedras Negras brewery. In order to enable Constellation to compete in the United States during the time it takes to expand the Piedras Negras brewery’s capacity to brew and bottle beer, the settlement requires ABI to enter into interim supply and transition services agreements with Constellation. These agreements are time-limited to ensure that Constellation will become a fully independent competitor to ABI as soon as practicable.

I figured that statement left wiggle room for AB to make money off helping Constellation expand in the US market, it doesn't limit the number of interim supply agreements but it still wasn't making any logical sense as to why AB would sign an agreement to provide for a competitor against them in the market. Surely getting all the profit was better than getting some of the profit. So back to the drawing board for me. Which is where I ran across this, statements made after the signing of the agreement.

Carlos Brito, chief executive officer of AB InBev, commented "The AB InBev and Grupo Modelo transaction has always been about Mexico and making Corona more global in all markets other than the US, where the brands will be owned and managed by Constellation. We are pleased to have reached this revised agreement that preserves the merits of the Grupo Modelo transaction while allowing us to move expeditiously to the Modelo integration process and the capture of approximately USD 1 billion of synergies up from our original estimate of USD 600 million.

There it was, one simply little word where you find yourself saying "it's the synergies stupid!" than clunking yourself on the forehead. What is a synergy you may ask...

The interaction or cooperation of two or more organization, substances, or other agents to produce a combined effect greater than the sum of their separate effect.

Now the light bulbs are really going off because in the long haul end of it all it will come back full circle to the Mulvaney effect. More about that momentarily. Back to the statements of synergy effect.

The combination is a natural next step given the long and successful partnership dating back more than 20 years between AB InBev and Grupo Modelo, and would create a significant growth opportunities worldwide from a combining two leading brand portfolios and distribution networks. This combination is driven by the growth potential of Modelo brands in Mexico as well as worldwide outside the US, and the opportunities to introduce additional AB InBev brand in Mexico through Modelo's distribution network. The Piedras Negras Brewery supplies the US exclusively and it's sale would not impact the growth of Modelo brands in Mexico or worldwide outside the US.

Since announcing the combination between AB InBev and Modelo, AB InBev has been working on integration planning and reviewing initial synergy forecast. Based on a more detailed and thorough analysis, AB InBev annual synergies will be approximately USD 1 billion up from the original forecast of USD 600 million estimated when the transaction was announced.

That agreement was signed ten years ago and up until recently if someone had asked me what is a Modelo I might have answered it sounds like some sort of Spanish bull fight. It takes a lot if you are planning on dethroning the king of beers. You have to expand capacity, which means you have to expand your suppliers but you can't expand your capacity and suppliers without increasing the demand for your product. In 2019 they announced that Modelo would become the official beer of the UFC:

UFC, the world’s premier mixed martial arts organization, and Modelo Especial, the nation’s fastest growing imported beer, announced a new multi-year marketing partnership that establishes Modelo as the “Official Beer and Malt Beverage” sponsor of UFC in the United States.

“Modelo is an amazing brand that shares UFC’s unmatched commitment to its fan base,” UFC President Dana White said. “I love Modelo and we’re already talking about doing a lot of exciting things together.”

Says Dana White close personal friend of former President Donald Trump. Still it wasn't enough to stop the bleeding of billions of dollars within AB InBev who had those interim agreements of helping Constellation expand it's capacity to distribute within US borders. "After abandoning a nearly completed 1.4 billion dollar plant over a water dispute in Mexico and a seven hundred million dollar write off Constellation decided to build another plant in southwest Mexico in the state of Veracrus. Constellation is also spending seven hundred million to nine hundred million per year from FY 2023-2025 to add fifteen million hectoliters of capacity to the existing thirty nine million at it's breweries in Eagle Pass, TX and Senora, Mexico. After the build outs and the construction of the Veracruz brewery the company will have added twenty five million to thirty million hectoliters of capacity in the medium term, under normal operating conditions we have ample capacity at the Nava and Obregon breweries to meet consumer needs based on current growth forecast and current and planned production capabilities." That announcement came in January 2022 but here in the US it was still pretty much crickets when it came to the name Modelo and globally it still hadn't dethroned the king of beers.

Obviously 87 million dollars in debt something had to give, or should one say something had to go. The processes laid out appear to be a well orchestrated plan that once capacity to handle the demand they'd make a move to dethrone the king of beers. When you search for and lay out all the other planned forecast financially for the future it starts to make sense. Like the fact that Mexican beer workers make five hundred dollars a month compared to their western counter parts who make four times that producing Budweiser. There's no unemployment compensation funds to pay into, no workers compensation fund, no health benefits, no social security or retirement plans, you begin to get the picture. Here they are planning for growth of a beer a lot of people haven't heard of while claims are made that beer sales are in decline. Those declines couldn't have any thing to do with like the Ball Corporation, who makes and prints cans for breweries quadrupling the amount a brewery has to order leaving many breweries incapable of obtaining cans while the Ball Corporation builds a plant in Mexico to print cans for Constellation.

Broomfield, Colorado-based Ball Corp BLL.N has built a plant in Monterrey to make cans for Constellation's new brewery.

Aluminum shortage was what they told other breweries for their decision to up the amount of orders. Other excuses heard from breweries here was shortage of supplies due to not enough box cars to haul ingredients needed to produce beers. That's funny because Constellation has no problem getting the railroads to bring them the items they need:

Constellation says it imports almost 20 percent of its glass bottles from the United States. The company did not say where those bottles come from, but Lance Fritz, chief executive of No. 1 U.S. railroad Union Pacific often cites the example of glass bottles the company hauls from a plant in Texas to a brewery in Mexico and that those bottles are made from recycled glass Union Pacific hauls from all over America.

The railroad has also invested $40 million in cleaning, washing and repair facility for beer-carrying box-cars just north of Constellation’s Nava brewery. Union Pacific hauls U.S. barley, malt and rice for brewing.

Speaking of glass the Ardagh group just announced the lay off at two plants of over six hundred workers to what they claim were related to the Bud Light controversy. But here's Ardagh chairman statement after having bought Africa's largest glass producing facility:

"We look forward to ... investing in the long-term growth of the African market, driven by consumer trends and rising sustainability awareness," Ardagh chairman Paul Coulson said in a statement.

The company currently only operates in Europe and the United States.

"(It) enables continued growth on the African continent by leveraging off Ardagh's proven glassmaking abilities, technical expertise and international customer and supplier base," it continued.

So let's get this straight, breweries and small specialty craft brewers here can't get cans, can't get bottles, can't get product and carbon dioxide needed to produce beer is hard to come by but there's plenty of stuff out there for large corporations to promote growth in low wage, less regulated third world countries. If you dig deep enough you begin to see how the beer industry is being undermined for not just profits to shareholders but enormous profits to shareholders. It's not just trying to dethrone the king of beers to entice larger profits off the backs of low wage workers either. These shortages almost appear deliberate to some small craft brewers to force the hand of small breweries and specialty craft brewers to sell out to AB to crave themselves out a market in the "beyond beer" market. If a brewer was showing significant success prior to being forced to lay off people due to shortages of products causing rising prices AB comes rushing in to buy them off. In some instances AB implements more cost cutting measures, lays off more people, sometimes even shuttering the doors before taking the brand off to be produced in one of AB breweries. One person was quoted as saying "craft means nothing to AB". Of course it doesn't, it's objective is to corner the market at the cheapest possible cost.

From what is gathered and where does it go from here. It's pretty evident that now that the build up to produce the quantities needed there there had to be a catalyst bigger than UFC to knock the king of beers off it's throne. This is where, to go global breaking, a group of professional Apprentice script writers will have to come in. They write the script for a transgender Dylan Mulvaney to swim around a bathtub waiting for a phone call with a can of Bud Lite in hand. Than what do you know within weeks the king of beers has been dethroned. Some would probably say aren't you making a rather big assumption with all that. Not when we line up all the players involved, they go around a circle and connect like a ring on a finger.

First we had the push by Trump associated friends in the UFC attempting to dethrone Budweiser. Than the Mulvaney video, which no one noticed until another Trump associated friend, Kid Rock, shot up a case of Bud Lite in protest to the video. Which, by the way, the New York Post said he's still selling Bud Lite at his bar. The next thing that is announced is a infusion of cash into Josh Kushner's investment firm Thrive by AB Inbev owner Jorge Paulo Lemann. Josh Kushner, for those not in the know, is the brother of Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump's husband. That infusion helped push Kushners private equity firm into a net worth of 5.7 billion dollars. More than a bit suspicious it happens after the controversary that another Kushner gets an infusion of money, eerily similar to Jared getting an infusion of money after the Trump presidency. Who knows if any percentage will make it into the pocket of the big guy but with an investment of between one to five million in AB stock itself Trump won't be coming out a loser.

I've never seen such a level of cognitive dissonance where people are just unable to connect the dots. Their mind set has been totally framed to believe that things can return to the way they once were by some course of a magic wand of one man who does just the opposite of what he's telling them. The mere fact that he has enabled his family and family members to enrich themselves into the billions of dollars off his presidency should speak volumes to the lies. His promises of returning this back to a once great nation has only seen him rewarded for his lies while Americans continue to struggle worse then they were before. He is no better than those who came before or those who have/will come after him. Mark my word because I've done enough deep diving to know it's only a matter of time before the same offshoring of our energy and the baby formula industry will start struggling with the same global effects and people will start losing those jobs. I am even going to go out on a limb here and predict that after the election of 2024, come 2025, we're are going to witness a massive overhaul of our government. Those people still sitting at home working are going to find themselves pink slipped out of a job never to return as the America First Initiative works in unison behind closed doors, democrats and republicans, planning the overhaul to a new transitional global governance. No better way to transition a government than to have empty offices those individuals can just walk into and take over. Kelly Ann Conway said it herself "it won't matter who gets elected". So I'll close with a reminder of Michael Moore's own words, "once they realize Trump wasn't going to do a God damn thing for them it will be to late, they just elected the last American president".