crystal liu

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is the ultimate Bitcoin cheat sheet that
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you need to know going into the end of
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this year and 2025 as you know we're
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already in the banana zone so we'll be
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talking about this in a lot of detail in
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the next few charts so subscribe to the
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channel for more videos like this in the
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future like this video if you enjoy
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content like this going forward and
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let's dive right into it so we're very
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familiar with the boring Zone and the
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banana Zone the boring Zone tends to
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occur for quite a few months after the
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harving event but that tends to proceed
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parabolic price action towards the
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upside and we've seen this across Cycles
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from 2012 to
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2016 and of course 2020 to then really
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transitioning into this cycle 2024 and
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now we are in the banana Zone very
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firmly and as you can see we've been
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talking about this reaccumulation phase
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for a long time and one of the things to
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really take note of is that this re
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accumulation phase in 2020 post Haring
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reaccumulation that lasted 163 days in
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this cycle we saw that reaccumulation
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phase elongate and extend by an
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additional 45 days or so and that's
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really important to take note because if
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we're considering a parabolic phase from
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2020 which lasted 385 days can we really
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consider a copypaste scenario
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based on the fact that potentially this
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reaccumulation phase has potentially
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eaten into our parabolic phase so if we
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talk about 160
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days and then we have those extra 145
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days that otherwise could have been in
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the parabolic upside phase does it mean
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that this reaccumulation phase at into
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this parabolic upside phase or are we
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going to actually see parabolic phase
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extend a little bit and from my
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perspective I think this would mean that
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the parabolic phase is a little bit
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shorter and it's better to talk about it
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in worst case scenarios because that
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would just mean that this parabolic
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phase in the cycle could be shorter by
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45 days and and let's just entertain
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that for a second because when we're
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talking about this banana Zone things
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really do go parabolic we've seen that
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so many times in the past and let's just
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talk about some of these zones because
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we'd see uninterrupted upside small dips
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on the upside and very few Corrections
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in the middle so these Corrections tend
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to occur those tend to be fantastic bide
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opportunities especially if you consider
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the first major Corrections so we had a
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first major correction here in the 2016
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cycle and then a second major correction
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but the third major correction that was
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already the end of the bull market so
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going back to 2020 here here we have a
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dip here we have that first major
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correction maybe a second major
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correction and then we don't get a third
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major correction so we do see the bare
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Market develop after that bull market
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Peak so going back to 2012 for example
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we see very few moments of rest Spite
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and pulling back for bitcoin's Price
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action so once we do
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crash after a 300 day
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parabolic upside period that tends to be
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the end of the bull market so we're
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probably going to be getting a dip at
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some
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point right we're probably going to get
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a price Discovery correction at some
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point as we've seen in the past we might
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get a second one in the future as well
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as we've seen in the
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past but in the meantime we're going to
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see price Discovery uptrend number
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one and so this is really that sort of
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ultimate cheat sheet that's going to
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really guide you over these next few
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months and
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2025 we have that first parabolic
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uptrend and that dipping there here
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first parabolic uptrend before that
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dipping so that's the first parabolic
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uptrend then we get that
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dip which across Cycles tends to happen
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we then see the second parabolic upside
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as you can see here cross cycle and then
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of course that major correction which
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essentially you can just do this right
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because we see a correction here a
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correction here we'll see a correction
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here as well at some point and then
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maybe one one final correction near the
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top and that just gives us an idea in
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terms of the road map of what to expect
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going forward but if we're talking about
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these reaccumulation phases this was 160
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days after having this was slightly
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longer at 205 days after the Haring 2016
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gives us a bit more clarity on the fact
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that this was 150 days after having 154
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days after having that this
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reaccumulation phase took place but then
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you can actually see that the parabolic
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phase of the cycle actually lasts 350
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days so if we're comparing 2020 in that
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regard the 2016 phase was slightly
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shorter so we have 385 days parabolic
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upside in 2020 357 days parabolic upside
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in 2016 so are we seeing some sort of
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extension in the parabolic phase from
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2016 to
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2020 and so it's a little bit there are
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quite a few variables because we're
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seeing an extension in the
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reaccumulation phase by 45 days and if
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we're
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comparing the 385 days of 2020 and 360
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days of 2016 then there there's an
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extension in the parabolic phase of the
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cycle by
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some 30 days almost so if we've extended
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by 45 days in the reaccumulation phase
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and we tend to see some extension by 30
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days or so in the parabolic phase of the
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cycle across time then does this
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extension then cancel out with that
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potential extension in the parabolic
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phase of the cycle that we tend to see
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overall I talk about this in a lot of
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detail in the Rex Capital newsletter in
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my most recent newsletter so feel free
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to check out the link in the description
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down below and feel free to read and
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really find out what I talk about and
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how I come up with the idea that maybe
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we do see a slightly earlier peak in the
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bull market as a result of the
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acceleration that's still remaining in
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the cycle remember we broke out 2 weeks
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before schedule in terms of the 214 days
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after having where we tend to see new
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alltime highs we broke out 205 days
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after the having so a bit of a 2 we
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acceleration there but that's pretty
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phenomenal because when we peaked in the
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first old or new alltime high at the
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time this was an acceleration of 260
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days 260 days and we narrowed that down
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to just 14 days which is impressive
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dramatic but nonetheless there is a
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lingering rate of acceleration in this
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cycle that we simply cannot ignore and
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if we just take away 14 days from this
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potential period here we factor in the
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fact that we have 45 days right over
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here and maybe we do see an extension in
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terms of parabolic upside across phases
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and across Cycles then really what do we
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come down to we come down to a
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conservative estimate of approximately
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300 days and that just gives you a bit
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of an average it factors in the worst
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case scenario that we top out a little
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bit sooner factors in the acceleration
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in the cycle it factors in the extended
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reaccumulation phase in this cycle it
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factors in quite a few variables that
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most people aren't going to factor in
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because it's not really engagement
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worthy whereas here we're actually
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trying to come up with a realistic road
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map and plan to Financial Freedom and
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that's what we always do here on the
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channel on my Twitter on my ex we always
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do that in the re Capital newsletter so
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if you haven't signed up to the
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newsletter feel free to click in the
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link in the description down below but I
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think it's really important to also talk
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about diminishing returns and the fact
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that we are exiting this reaccumulation
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phase of the cycle we always see
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reaccumulation around old alltime highs
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we tend to see these ranges be either
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very short very zigzaggy and very
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volatile very short again or extremely
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overextended in terms of time 205 days
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let's repeat that but then inevitably we
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transition out of that phase and you can
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see here that of course we tend to see
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phenomenal upside to the next bull
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market Peak the final new alltime high
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that we get before the bare Market but
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of course we have to understand that
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there is diminishing returns involved in
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each of these cycles and that doesn't
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mean that we're going to struggle in
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this cycle but we have to be cognizant
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of some of the changes that inevit occur
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in the
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maturing asset class that Bitcoin is and
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what's interesting is that this chart
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simply can't keep up with the price
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action because Bitcoin right now is at
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912k and that's a little bit too quick
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for this price chart to keep up and the
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BNC the Bitcoin liquid index it's great
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to just showcase history dating back to
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even 2011 but does struggle to keep up
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with the price action in real time but
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nonetheless I do digress if we talk
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about diminishing returns and we think
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about maybe having having some of that
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diminishing some of those returns then
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that still gets us into 150 130 120 so
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there is still upside left to enjoy for
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bitcoin's Price action and if we talk
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about some of these phases in terms of
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length
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then this is something we get to enjoy
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in terms of a 300 day window for the
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parabolic phase of the cycle and the
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parabolic phase of the cycle isn't by by
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any means smooth sailing you can see
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that we tend to see Corrections on the
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way up those are your moments for dollar
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C averaging into the market but it's
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important to do so more with conviction
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in the very early stages of those price
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Discovery waves and if we talk about
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diminishing returns across Cycles then
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we need to talk about diminishing
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returns across price Discovery uptrends
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so this is that price discovery uptrend
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in the very first 8 weeks of price
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Discovery and over here we had this for
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4 weeks so this was the first price
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Discovery uptrend and notice how that
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also diminishes across time in 2017 and
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then you'll notice here as well in
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2021 where we also diminish before we
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finally pull back but not that much
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which is quite interesting that
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diminishing rate of return Isn't that
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interesting and I'm or at least too big
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which I'm trying to say and so if we do
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something like this then of course we
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need to factor that diminishing rate of
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return but it does give us an idea that
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well maybe we halfway through this price
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Discovery wave
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potentially with a little bit more so
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maybe 40% more in this price Discovery
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wave this very first one before we then
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see that first major price Discovery
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correction in the future and of course
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it's bound to happen and really don't
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ignore it because they can be that's a
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high probability
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opportunity that really lays ahead and
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2013 showed us that this can be quite a
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significant opportunity but this is
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25% for example here that's also some 30
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25% and this last 2 to 3 weeks here it
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lasted a little bit longer than that but
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it's enough to convince people that the
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bull market is over and that the bare
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Market is beginning and so people are
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going to think that we're already here
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and going to experience a year-long bare
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Market whereas we still have quite a bit
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of upside left to enjoy so price
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Discovery wave one is right
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underway it's it's already in play it's
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two weeks in we saw a 4-we price
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Discovery wave here we saw an 8we price
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Discovery wave here we saw a 6 weeks
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price Discovery wave right over here and
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then we saw a several week price
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Discovery correction
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afterwards multi-week price Discovery
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correction afterwards and then
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multi-week price Discovery correction
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afterwards as well but then what follows
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is that next price Discovery wave in
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2020 here again but just notice how we
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transition into another price Discovery
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correction and even in 2013 you can see
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that once we finally transition out from
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in fact if you think about this as the
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price Discovery wave wave two then you
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see this is a 25% reaccumulation phase
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and pullback opportunity so that's price
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Discovery correction number two in 2013
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and then we embark on that last price
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Discovery wave towards the upside in
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2013 and here is the same for 2017 maybe
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a small dip in the meantime and of
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course this is that final price
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Discovery wave in
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2021 so essentially the the real
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takeaways here are price Discovery wave
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uptrend number one is in progress still
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it's only week two so still a few weeks
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left we have 4 to8 weeks generally in
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this price Discovery wave then we could
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suffer a major price Discovery
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correction of approximately 25% 30%
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maybe 20% that's going to last 2 to 3
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weeks then we're going to see that
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second price Discovery uptrend wave
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before
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we have that price Discovery correction
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that second one which could also be once
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again a 30% pullback and then the final
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price Discovery wave into new alltime
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highs and that's probably that's
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probably going to be it that's going to
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be the new alltime highs the final
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alltime highs and that's going to be it
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for that sort of price appreciation so I
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talk
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about whether we're going to have a a
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shorter parabolic upside phase in direct
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capital newsletter check it out find out
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more click in the link in the
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description down below to read more
15:08
about it I talk about the price
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Discovery waves in a lot of detail in
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the re Capital newsletter check out the
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link in the description find out more
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read more about it there are so many
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opportunities still left in the market
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when it comes to bitcoin's price action
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with these potential price Discovery
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Corrections still ahead in the future
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but just note that altcoins haven't yet
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even begun their macro uptrends they're
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only just beginning their uptrends so
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still so much more to enjoy when it
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comes to altcoins and still so much left
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ahead for Bitcoin but not too much left
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in this video that's about it for
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today's video thanks so much subscribe
15:48
to the channel for more videos like this
15:50
in the future like this video if you
15:51
enjoy content like this going forward
15:52
I'm re capital and I'll speak to you in
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the next one speak to you soon