CRYPTO & SHIBA INU HODLERS BE RREADY NOW - WARNING (This Is Your Last Chance)

Bull runners mr kazarian here today i would like to share a video with you covering the feds inflation rates and how it affects your portfolio as well as inuyasha's the science dow pre-sale registration that is closing today and how you can get yourself qualified for the pre-sale comment 777 below if you're feeling bullish comment 777 below if you're feeling blessed and let's run it back to the channel guys as always we're kicking off this video with a giveaway we're giving away 100 of your favorite cryptocurrency and all you've got to do is give the like button a smash and comment below each and every comment you leave gives you an entry and of course head on over to runguys.com to subscribe to our video newsletter right now because that's where we announce our winners every single week with that being said let's make some money welcome back bull runners please remember that i am not a financial advisor anything that i say here today is for educational purposes only please do your own research your own due diligence and any investment is an investment of your own okay,

So we're here at the inuyasha dex tools dot io page let's take a look at the uniswap pool info total liquidity is at 1.3 million daily volume of 231 thousand pooled weak sitting at 231 and a market cap of 27.9 million 5390 holders anyasha is currently up three hundred with nine point seventeen percent on the day i do expect this to continue growing as we get closer to the pre-sale here as you are required to hold varying amounts of in yasha to receive your allocation of the pre-sale with a minimum of 10 million in yosha to 100 million inuyasha all right we're here at inuyasha's website that's inuyasha dot io if you would like to participate in the pre-sale click this red button launch yasha pad this will bring you to the launch pad for inuyasha click this link right here what this will do is open up your telegram on whichever device that you have it installed and open on this will send you to a verification bot that will link your user id to these pre-sell registration portal here this eliminates all of the user id linking issues that inuyasha has experienced in the past with previous launches you will then be able to connect your wallet directly to the pre-sale registration portal on the website,

Where you will want to make sure that you have anywhere between 10 to 100 million inuyasha and one salmon nft inuyasha has liquidity over at uniswap and l bank if you would like to purchase inuyasha on uniswap click this link right here this will copy the contract address head over to uniswap.org click the launch app button connect your wallet this will give you a list of options you can connect via metamask wallet connect coinbase wallet formatic or portus once connected click the select a token paste that contract address click any offshore you'll be given the option to import i already have it imported and then just input the amount of eth that you would like to swap for the asset and you are good to go and if you would like to receive updates live on the pre-sale as well as developments put out by the inuyasha development team you can head over to our telegram at telegram dot me forward slash inuyasha underscore official once connected this will prompt you if you have telegram installed on desktop or mac os with a box you could select open telegram desktop,

And this will connect you directly to the verification portal or you can click the view in telegram button here and this will open telegram on any device that you have it installed to and automatically connect you to the valid and official verification in the asha portal now please remember you have until 12 o'clock p.m today pacific standard time to sign up for the pre-sale registration it does officially close at noon today i'd like to share this video with you today that goes into great detail on the feds and how they're dealing with inflation and how it can affect your portfolio enjoy inflation is running even hotter than expected rising at the fastest pace in four decades so how aggressive will the fed be in taming inflation and what does that mean for markets and your portfolio we have a power wealth planning and investment management panel to break it down joining us is david nelson chief strategist and co-chief investment officer at bellpoint asset management and michael lee founder of michael leaf strategy david and michael thank you for joining us thanks for having us michelle,

We are doing michelle all right david welcome to kid coaster let's start with you the u.s consumer price index rose seven and a half percent in january year-over-year now that is putting a lot of pressure on the fed to act more aggressively to try and tame this inflation so david how hawkish do you think the fed is going to be here you're already starting to see it uh you know in the middle of the day markets were actually trying to you know crawl into the green and uh st louis uh president uh uh james bullard came out and said he expects rates to go to uh one percent 100 basis points the fed funds rate by july okay that's a different dynamic that certainly wasn't priced into the market and uh the market's headed headed south and right now what you're seeing in fifth futures right now you're seeing that you're seeing it priced into about 200 basis points by the end of the year 200 basis points by the end of the year uh is a 50 basis point hike pretty much a given for march david yeah it is uh you know coming into today it was only about a 31 probability,

And now we're looking at uh you know it jumped over 50 percent probability and i think it's that all the way up to 67. i think in another couple of days it'll be almost 100 certain i won't be surprised if the fed actually comes out intermediating and does it in advance all right mike what's your read here yeah yeah if we get um a 50 basis point hike into meeting uh intrameeting uh that would be you know nothing like that has happened since the 90s uh that would that would really take everyone uh by shock but i don't necessarily know that that would rock equity markets i think um a lot of things are going on here i think inflation is going to slow down this year okay uh for a few different reasons uh first is like you're gonna have higher base effects second um you know you're gonna have demand destruction uh third you have the fed coming into play although i don't know what raising waste is gonna actually do for inflation other than home prices it's not going to affect rents it's not going to reduce a gallon of milk it's not going to make oil prices go down uh,

You're so far away from taking real liquidity out of the economy vis-a-vis the fed funds rates um i i i definitely think we're going to get 50 basis points in march uh how much after that i think remains to be seen and i think while that's a huge unknown it's it's going to be hard for markets of any kind to make meaningful direction all right but mike it sounds to me like you're not that concerned about inflation so does this mean you think we've reached peak inflation with this number here you know i i certainly hope so i if we're not at peak inflation now we will be in the next couple months uh like i said uh mostly because of the demand destruction and um lower base effects and so what i would say if inflation continues to accelerate okay you now are running into a real societal problem governments uh in countries like argentina have been toppled because of this but it i have to believe at some point these supply chains will be much better than where they are right now and maybe uh a big reason for a lot of the price increases over the last uh last month was omicron,

You would think with the slowdown that we had in the economy the noticeable slowdown we had in december because of covet popping up that inflation would have slowed down maybe there was an additional negative effect on um on the supply chains because of that but the the month over month growth even though it was slightly below expectations at this point you should be seeing that simmer down if we have an equal or greater number uh in in uh when february comes out with the january numbers or i'm sorry uh in in march before the meeting um i i i like david said i could see the fed popping in right there and getting active right away all right but david do you buy this supply chain issue that this is really what's behind here i mean let's face it pal has been very wrong with his call that inflation is transitory you can't be surprised that we have such a high rate of inflation after we've had unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus i mean this can't shock anyone when you pump all this money into the system and now you have rates uh inflation going so high so do you think that this is ultimately uh really linked to omicron and global supply chain issues it's certainly part of it but you're speaking to the elephant room,

there's just a massive liquidity in the system that's been you know started more than 12 years ago and that's continued unabated you add the fiscal stimulus that's coming from washington and the likely fiscal stimulus that's coming they're going to probably take the bill that couldn't get back get through and parcel it up some parts of it are are are going to get through i think mike speaks to a good point the supply chain issues they'll have to get better and it's certainly part of the problem but if to me the heart of it one of the areas you've got to look at you have to look at the prices of energy energy touches every line item of the income statement and it's not just at the corporate level it's in everybody's pocketbook whether you're driving to the station whether you're driving into the city i don't care how it how it affects you one way or another you're paying for it and those prices right now it's not just about the price of oil it's about the the lack of supply and the fact that our commodity complex and our energy complex pulled back so drastically a lot of ceos are very content to just pop up at a modest rate and that because they want to they want to reward their shareholders it needs a lot of cash flow to the shareholders right now well we can't look at this so without taking into account the big political picture,

here because that's part of the reason we have this situation and although the fed is supposed to be apolitical can't dismiss the political content it's a pick your poison environment for the biden administration and the fed because we've got high inflation hurting democrats we've got midterms coming up but what could hurt them even more is a new recession as you both know very well fed chair paul volcker managed to rein in double-digit inflation in the 1980s but at the cost of double-digit unemployment and that of course really pummeled president reagan's popularity so we know the biden administration is definitely not considering spending cuts or tax increases that would act as fiscal anti-stimulus so it's all on the fed yeah david with midterms coming up in the political environment that we're in with a lot more political pressure being put on the fed from the left does the fed really have the stomach to do what's necessary here well they've blinked in the past and i would say the first hint of economic contraction you'll likely see a pause maybe they'll start hiking every every every meeting and then all of a sudden there'll be a pause already the most ominous sign in the market right now is not the fact that the 10 year is now,

above 2 the most obvious sign is the spread between ten and two year paper is contracting dramatically and hinting of an inverted yield curve sometime this year that speaks to recession the economy is slowing down the question isn't whether we're slowing is what are we slowing to are we slowing to three percent that would be great but if we're slowing to you know sub two percent one percent who's going to be the first economist that comes out and says it's zero well let's talk about that r word mike recession because as david points out the yield curve obviously a good leading indicator four recessions in the past a flat or a negative yield curve typically been followed by a recession six months later and the yield curve has been steadily flattening since march of last year so what do you see here are you concerned about a recession michael do you think that a soft landing can somehow be engineered my concerns over recession are close to zero in the next couple years um recessions are caused by debt bubbles right we we don't have your classical debt bubble a lot of the financial crisis a lot of over levered tech companies in the dot com boom that didn't really have any revenue or profits,

credit spreads have not blown out high yield spreads have not blown out uh and if you look at the chicago fed uh national liquidity index you know you really haven't seen meaningful tightening uh of financial conditions yet okay all this could change in six months from now three months from now a year from now on but on the radar i'm not looking at an inflation i'm sorry i'm not looking for a recession i'm not fearful of a recession what i i still firmly believe we are mid-cycle and what you are seeing right now is a fed that probably should have started tapering uh qe a year ago or longer to give itself a lot more optionality in situations like this um really just caught offsides either from from hubris from uh thinking that supply chains were gonna come back online things were gonna be uh things things were gonna fix themselves or um or or total political uh political means with jay powell trying to get reelected it doesn't really matter at this point all that matters is that they're offsides,

but i would say since november the two year has already moved over a hundred basis points higher and so they're already pricing in four rate hikes how many more are we going to get in there before we get inversion okay what what the yield curve flattening is saying is this is a policy error that the fed is the fed is just too late to start slowing down inflation so uh i i'm definitely watching the 2-10 230s uh every day okay but overall mike you sound rather optimistic to me you're not worried about inflation getting too hot or too out of control and you're not really worried that we're going to have a recession either am i reading you correctly yes yes i i would say uh until we the market can get their arms around what the glide path for the fed is going to be i think we're in a bit of no man's land bouncing around a lot of volatility i think this inflation is bad uh i i think if it doesn't uh come down dramatically over the next six months you're you could be looking at uh more than just the house,

and the senate flipping to republicans like this there definitely is a probability that inflation accelerates not decelerates so if if that sort of thing does happen uh then yes a reflection a a recession and possibly worse is on the horizon okay but you're not really seeing that as a top concern david do you concur do you think that somehow there can be this environment that's engineered where we do have this coveted soft landing well i think you got to separate two things you got to separate main street from wall street you know right main street could probably be okay uh here wall street's got another problem because when when race rise multiples contract that's something we've been seeing you know for the last six months and you've seen long-duration equity kind of take it on the chin and and and a lot i think this year investors want food on their plate they don't want just sales growth they want to see they want to see food on their plate in the form of earnings cash flow and or and or dividends and that's why you've seen this kind of fairly large rotation in into into value this year i think that's going to swing back and forth depending on the headlines but overall i would say think for the next year or so until multiples contract to a meaningful level uh or to to a sustained level which is lower than where we are right now then i think that dynamic plays out,

until then all right so david how are you positioning your portfolio to play this environment well i'm absent the usual suspects no real estate zero no utilities zero uh overweight energy financials uh and also healthcare as well i think healthcare often gets you know misplaced because there's a lot of fear for the bite administration that there would be you know drug price controls that to a large degree has not happened this is a growth at the right price sector so if you're looking for growth at a reasonable price that's it unfortunately so many other areas of the market more from growth at the right price to growth at any price and i think the markets are doing a reset right now so what would be your top three investment ideas or for this market environment as you read it now david i think you got to be i think you have to have uh the energy in picture there's a reason why energy is the best performing sector this year the best performing sector last year even if oil prices stay where they are right now the cash flow is there look at look at look at the numbers you know the average the average energy company out there is probably trading with a single digit pe a free cash flow range seven to nine percent and a three percent dividend in a market that is trading it you know over 20 times that's probably a good place to hide financials can do well but they need more than rates just going higher the fact that the yield curve is starting to invert that's that's problematic also they're being attacked by fintech as well jamie dimon said it he said that you know fintech is their biggest biggest concern over the next couple of years so energy right now materials uh and you're just gonna have to do your homework even in tech you can find companies trading at respectable multiples and reasonable growth rates you don't have to buy into a company that has zero earnings or zero gap earnings as far as the eye can see all right and mike what are you thinking what are your top investment ideas for this market environment yes so uh biggest position is in energy as david said and if you think about the energy as a sector all the wind is at its sales you you still have an economy that's coming back online and if you go back to the summer of 2020 uh the story with this economy is it's coming back the growth and the resurgence of the economy has just been better than anyone imagined and as a result the demand for oil is increasing as well we simply don't have the supply to meet with uh to meet that demand combine that with a hostility towards fossil fuels and the green everything and a build back better um that puts a premium on the asset and as david mentioned so i i play that through the xle um that's my largest holding um if you just pick the two biggest stocks in the sector as david mentioned exxon mobil and chevron both four percent plus dividends very low multiple and the wind at its sales and if you ask yourself okay this in my mind equity markets are very uncertain for the next three to six months okay maybe that time frame maybe get a little bit more clarity from powell as to where they're going and then we kind of resume our bull run but until then uh what's the easiest place to make money what about that energy thesis is going to change these energy companies aren't going to get expensive overnight uh the price of oil is most likely to have over 100 than below 80. so unless there's you know something that you know some extraogenous event that causes a recession um that we don't know about yet i can't imagine demand slowing uh i can't imagine a lot of more supply coming on coming online and then you have reasonable valuations uh high dividends so that's that's easy play that i own consumer staples and i own uh financials those are those are my big overweights at the moment i'm under i own tech but i am underweight in that in my portfolio all right we can't uh talk about oil and ignore a major geopolitical development that may or may not unfold and that is of course a russian incursion into ukraine we have tensions on the border there we're not quite sure how the biden administration is going to react if there is any kind of movement from putin into the ukraine even sanctions if there is no military option which is unlikely but even sanctions would have an impact yeah so what happens in that event to the energy sector david you know most geopolitical events not all but most geopolitical events that cause a disruption in the market are usually buying opportunities and i think this one will be the one one as well it's a serious issue obviously both from a military standpoint from a geopolitical standpoint and a foreign policy uh as well i'm not quite sure how the bible administration is going to handle it i i don't give a high high mark so far the bigger issue on the geopolitical stage and and the elephant in the room is taiwan that's something that would rattle the markets and it wouldn't recover from it if if taiwan went down tomorrow all right we would not have the manufacturing capacity to produce goods we need we don't have the semiconductor manufacturing capacity it's why we're working so high hard to get it here it's actually a national security imperative to do that but that's going to take years so how we balance that out how we deal with china and keep them from from moving in that that's on my radar well and of course china is looking very closely at how the biden administration responds to the aggressive posturing by putin because if the biden administration signals weakness in the way it handles russia then that would certainly embolden china to take a more aggressive stance regarding taiwan but in it before we would see any kind of chinese action what do you think that would mean for the energy sector obviously we would expect a big pop there if there is continued instability and more aggressiveness coming from putin with regards to ukraine there david wouldn't you expect uh oil to shoot up initially at least yeah it would and if somebody didn't step in to supply put in the supply uh as mike was talking about earlier my guess is given what the administration's done in the past there'd be a major shift again back to opec not a very friendly part of the world uh and you know echoes of the 70s uh so i hope that doesn't come to pass but obviously all options are on the table so david what then do you see as the biggest market risk at the moment you know it's really all of the above and no i think mike would agree and i think at some point it depends on how these things unfold over the next three to six months right now you know equity markets are challenged and uh and and i think investors are positioned accordingly uh you saw a tremendous you know output from from the bond market today you know for the average investor out there what's the offsetting risk asset class the 6440 portfolio what do you do with the 40. yeah we know what to do with the 60 but what do we do with the 40 because that's in a bear market or heading into a bear market that's the challenge we have in front of us all right so mike what do you do with that 40 percent that traditionally would go into bonds then so um look you need to be looking at uh floating rate securities and shorting your duration um that's that's the way you can you can play into it you know i like preferreds i'd be looking to buy them now uh but these are beta security so there's a lot of volatility a lot of volatility in there but if you're short on that duration side uh duration is not your time of maturity for those that are not uh up to date on the bond lingo uh it's it's your interest rate risk you want to take as much interest rate risk out of your equation so you shorten the duration uh and i would on the typically the floating rate those aren't the highest quality but those are bonds that are resetting on a quarterly basis so you can play the raising rates there uh then most of them are linked to uh short-term indicators um and then you know even though you're losing money in cash you know having cash at a point right now wouldn't be the worst thing because we're definitely gonna have some dips this year that's gonna we're gonna entering a new volatility regime and it's it's all uh fed driven i think you know some of these geopolitical risks i think at first uh people were a little bit nervous but it doesn't seem to be the will to go to war in america especially over a country that means almost nothing to us so i i don't i i think avoiding uh military conflict uh in ukraine is very very um high and every it's a high probability it's high on everyone's list so uh you're struggling right now so if you own the long bond uh since december you know you're down dramatically so just just from the end of the year just this year and how when does when is that bleeding stop because the long bond the 30-year treasury is typically one of your best um the best hedges against volatility in the world and volatility in the market so um you're you're in this rare kind of scenario where stocks and bonds are selling off and you're left with very little other than your sort of cash alternatives but if inflation persists uh those cash alternatives are gonna be worth you know if you're if you're getting two percent on your short-term fixed income you know you've only lost five percent in a seven percent inflation world that's not really uh a desirable investment so this is going to be a tough year for a lot of people i would just say to most investors just stick with it i think we're going to come out the other side just fine all right well i have to ask you about gold because kitka viewers are certainly not surprised by inflation we've had several guests and analysts calling for it for well over a year just looking again at the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus yet david gold is not really budging it has not really fulfilled its role as an inflation hedge why not what's happening here uh one word bitcoin uh i think you know bitcoin kind of changed the dynamic for gold i i'm long i'm long gold uh but it hasn't performed in some key moments you know over the last number of years and i think the rise of bitcoin you know kind of speaks to that i think whether or not bitcoin is a is a valid asset class or not i think that train has actually left the station you know it doesn't matter what we think people are in it and it's worth what the next person is willing to pay for it and it's extremely volatile and obviously should only be a small part of people's portfolios right now but the fact that the commodities some of the commodity agencies are looking to regulate it that tells me they believe it's going to be here for some time the fact that it's decentralized is going to ver make it very difficult for governments including china to completely eliminate it they'll fight it but unless they act in concert which doesn't seem likely i think bitcoin's here to stay and you really think that bitcoin is the big reason that we're not seeing gold perform as we would expect it to i think so right now it's the only one i can come up with you know the the best correlation for you know for for uh for gold there's an inverse correlation uh with the dollar and uh that hasn't even panned out you know from time to time it works so what what would you say do you have an outlook on gold for the end of the year david i don't have a price target i i don't think i'm going to get hurt in gold uh right now uh it'll be interesting to see if there's a sell-off in bitcoin if gold if gold follows uh but right now i own it and it'll probably be if i get stopped out of it then then so be it yeah well so far we have not been seeing any correlation uh or any significant correlation with gold prices going up in the environment of having a bit of a bitcoin sell-off as we've had over the first couple of months of the year uh mike what's your read on gold do you have an outlook for us you know some gold as an invasion inflation hedge uh just seems to be broken okay uh the best explanations i i've been able to come up with and i've heard is that it's it's so much easier to participate in other financial assets to hedge against inflation okay whether it's real estate whether it's stocks or whether it's crypto it's just it's a lot easier to use those as your inflation hedge so if you were long a lot of real estate going into uh the spring of 2020 uh you're in very good shape right now if you were long a lot of stocks you're in excellent shape right now if you're long a lot of bitcoin you're in excellent shape right now the only thing that really hasn't come along with it is gold and so in the summer of 2020 gold was at 18 1900 you know i am in my mind it's going to 4 000 a la uh 2010 uh 2000 2011 when it went to 2000. right so i was expecting a doubling event at that point and it just hasn't happened so something is broken with gold at the moment i would still say um you know you need to own some physical gold in your home because you have no idea what's going to happen i would recommend gold coins um as a way you know you know if inflation does get out of control and it becomes very difficult to buy loaves of bread and there is civil war uh not that i think that's gonna happen but but think about it what what are you gonna pay people with your you know you're gonna whip out your your cell phone you're gonna venmo people worthless money uh having some physical gold in your home uh in my mind is is something that everybody should do and it could be a small amount or a large amount if it's a large amount you know that to to a large degree that's been dead money for um for a long time but uh i i own physical gold i'll continue to own physical gold uh until you know until it becomes my kids after i die all right well hopefully that is a very very very long time away in the future thank you so much michael appreciate it michael lee founder of michael e strategy and david nelson great to have you with us david nelson chief strategist and co-chief investment officer at bellpoint asset management thank you to you both thanks michelle thank you and thank you for watching i'm michelle macquarie coming to you from new york keep it right here on keep co make sure you like comment and subscribe and share it if you fly you