STATMAN "ALERT" What the COMMERCIALS are betting with the 10 year US TREASURY. What it means for the dollar, gold. They are "LONG" BIG TIME! LOOK at gold and silver! Was our Sept. "bottom" call accurate, or is a down leg coming!!

Good morning my friends. We will be posting daily now! And is there news to report this morning!!

Gold and silver are up bigtime with silver up another 40 cents (2.5%) to 14.85 and gold up 16.00 to 1205.
We have reported repeatedly on the big "long position by the "Commercials" (see yesterday's report). This means we are going up and up bigtime. It doesn't mean it has started. My "gut" feeling is we have and we always felt the bottom would be September.

Here is big news! The "Commercials" are now LONG the 10 year Treasury in one of the biggest numbers EVER.

What does it mean and why would they be going in this direction, we might ask. 1.) They believe (and are seldom on the wrong side) rates will be coming down. 2.) They believe the dollar weakens. 3.) They are fleeing to safety NOW.

It means "super bullish" for goldsilver and I am hoping Bitcoin, as well.
To me it means equities are soon in trouble. If you'd like Statman's Sentiment opinion see below.

I was an options trader over 30 years ago for a major Wall Street firm. I am going to keep this simple. I studied PUT-CALL ratios and made it a science. NOTHING when studying "SENTIMENT" is as valid. But, you must gear it to how the market is acting and how humans are reacting in accordance. Right now the "Don't worry be happy crowd" is buying the dips.

See the lovely "parabolic" move in the Dow-Jones. It says to Statman..SELL SELL SELL.

But here this. I am NOT in full agreement with Jason Goepfert of Sentiment trader (his charts above). Go to KWN.com. I have seem more negative call-put ratios. I say again I believe we go a bit higher, maybe 2-4 percent more in the equities before we fall 20 -30 percent. That is my take. You make your own call and decisions, of course.

Thank you all again. If you think this is worthy of your RESTEEM, by all means it is appreciated!