What will determine the actual underlying value of XRP

Before you begin, if you don't understand why XRP is useful to banks in the first place, please read this:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Ripple/comments/7pgvyc/heres_how_and_why_xrp_will_be_used_by_banks/

Also, please do me the kind consideration of reading this entire article, and the comments. I get a lot of repeat comments and I'll just ignore you if you ask the same question that I've already addressed.

Now I won't attempt to put a dollar value prediction out there, that's just a waste of time and even if I was right, I'm wrong, because I was lucky. Anybody, any news article, any company, and especially any Technical Analysis that draws converging fucking triangles (my favorite), attempting to predict price direction or values, is utterly and completely full of shit. The past few years are soooo riddled with stupid prediction after stupid prediction, catering to the psychic-seeking greedy twits that just want some relief from the stress of waiting for their coin of choice to parabolically vindicate their investment decisions. I'm going to tell you what actually drives this market.

In order of influence:

1. WHALE bots! Thousands of very BIG holders have software performing trades on their behalf on every exchange, in real-time. Because of their sizable positions, they create buy/sell walls (some visible, some not), and they artificially dampen the price with thousands of micro sales during periods of low volatility to make the price seem like it's crashing, shaking out loose hands so they can lap up your cheap XRP, etc. These bastards are 90% responsible for whatever price we see. In other words, whales pick the price.

2. Whale collaboration. Yes, they work together, either organically or in collusion, and they have a specific agenda for setting the prices such that they achieve certain public perceptions. The first XRP parabolic back in early 2017 was somewhat related to the XRP planned-lockup news, but the massive gains in price back then (40x) was also "intended" to bring XRP out of obscurity and front-and-center into crypto-traders' awareness. Parabolic moves are "coordinated and timed" price pumps that serve to attract new capital from fresh investors; like flies are attracted to a bug zapper. And it worked, tens of thousands of people dove in, hoping to catch another parabolic, but unfortunately the majority of them got shaken out with the months-long decline to 20 cents, the whales feeding on their XRP krill the whole time, creating a large population of XRP-haters decrying the "scam-coin". That feast finally dried up as all that was left were serious hodlers. Then the next parabolic to $3.60 hit in December/January, rewarding all the resolute and battle-weary hodlers with massive gains, and drawing a HUGE new influx of new investor money. But AGAIN, even now, the whales are chomping away at all the XRP they've been shaking out with their gradual price decline manipulation, creating a whole new generation of XRP-haters (I'll explain why that doesn't matter further down).

Another HUGE motivation for whales to produce the year-end parabolic is to not only gain widespread notoriety from the fact that XRP mooned in 2017 (placing it in the highly visible top 3, yet strategically not quite number 1..), but also resets the 'baseline' value for 2018 as we enter into the "new year", for the sure-to-be-epic series of further parabolics. If we were still at 20 cents going into 2018, then investors wouldn't think it could get much past $3 in a year, but if we start 2018 at $2 (which is only a month difference), then investors would think it could easily get to $10. See! By resetting the baseline, and capitalizing on the artificial boundary of the 'year', a blinder has been set up and the price has much less resistance to further exponential 2018 gains. If Ripple's business does very well this year, with few significant price increases, I would expect year-end 2018 to also follow this pattern (not suggesting those prices in any way though).

I know you all want to believe that natural market forces are at play and that it's a fair playing field for all, but that's just not reality. If you want to survive XRP's ride, hold, close your eyes, and come back in a year. Don't be bullied by these psych-out tactics. There is nothing natural about the price of XRP, or any of these coins in this unregulated wild-west. That doesn't mean XRP's not a real product, or that it's uniquely manipulated any more than any of the other coins, it just means that the big holders want to fuck with you into giving up your coins. Have faith that things always correct in time, and usually that comes in the form of a parabolic gain. It's important to understand that these parabolics and plateaus are only possible if there is intrinsic value to Ripple's product-line, alliances, staff, leadership, and technology. Said another way, the whales will do their best to keep the prices low for as long as possible, until they just can't do it any more (their walls get eaten), and they then allow it to correct to the next higher plateau where they'll start playing their psych-out games from this new level.

1. Insider trading. Do you think it was a coincidence that December/January's parabolic was immediately followed by the announcement that 3 of top 5 global money transmitters will be using XRP? Do you also think it's strange that following said announcement, the price barely budged? Welcome to insider trading; everyone on the 'inside' already knew this news and had the chance to get in early. So how are we, the common folks, supposed to ever get a piece of the pie? The only way to catch a parabolic, is to already be invested. You will NEVER be able to time it.

2. Scandal. Coinmarketcap conveniently and without warning removing the korean exchange values from the average price of coins was so slimy and obviously evil, that they all need to go to jail, BUT, this is an unregulated industry, so there's no enforceable culpability, and these types of things that can shake up market confidence will keep happening over and over and over. Even that Korean Ministry of Justice clown probably made a fortune in the dip after he said they were closing the Korean exchanges. What a shit show. That being said, most scandal is short-lived in the crypto-space, so despite their massive short-term impact, they usually end up forgotten in short order. I would even wrap up "regulation" in the scandal category because historically any regulation that has entered the space has had limited short-term influence.

3. Speculation. (us)

4. And finally, ultimately: Ripple's product quality. As long as Ripple can deliver on the promise it has sold to the world, it will be unstoppable and unparalleled.

---

And here are things that are often perceived as quantifiable "technical" influences, but these are purely psychological influences, in order of greatest misperception of significance:

1. Market Cap. 100% meaningless and the entire concept should be discarded. Please read https://www.xrpchat.com/topic/10366-the-myth-of-market-cap/

2. Technical Analysis. Jeeezus, if I see another MACD crossing I'm going to enucleate myself. TA does not apply folks. Watching XRP over the past year can disprove EVERY single TA approach imaginable. Converging triangles are for kindergarten. All these minimum-wage geniuses that keep plotting lines and arcs and other indicators, are doing so on EXISTING DATA!, so yes, it does look like they know what they are talking about because it lines up with the past. Well duh, hindsight is 20/20. But do yourself a favor, bookmark all these psychics' predictions, and come back in 6 months and see how they did. It's embarrassing. Again, even if they're right, they're wrong, because they got lucky.

3. FUD. While FUD can sometimes slow progress down, particularly if FUD becomes urban-legend-like ("banks will never use XRP!!"), then yes, it can have a detrimental effect on investors, but believe it or not, investor sentiment barely matters in the bigger picture. Allow me to draw a parallel. Imagine if you had a tricycle, and your buddy had a wagon, and your sister had a pogo stick, and all of you are racing down a mile of train track to see who's the best racer, and during the race you are all constantly pulling on each other, trying to cheat and trick each other into slowing down or going the wrong direction. Yes, it's good wholesome fun, but while you guys are goofing around, calling each other names, trying to trip each other, flinging snot, there's a quadrillion dollar express train on the horizon and it's bearing down fast. It won't care if you hate banks, it won't care about your goddam shit coins, and it won't care if you make mean tubes castigating XRP as a banker's coin. That fucking train is going to plow through you and your ideals like you don't even exist. So while the rumor mill is great click-bait for ad-based sites to lure you in with, it won't make a smoke's bit of difference when the big boys come to town; they don't see you, they certainly won't be listening; they'll just be looking where to plug XRP into their Borg train to make it go faster.

Now, do I like the fact that the rich get richer, and the banks keep control of everything, and humankind's indentured servitude is further solidified? Well, you can blame the system for all your suffering in life, or you could go live in the forest like our ancestors. Take your pick. Option 3, the 1% share with us, won't happen. As a wise man once alluded to, there'll be tanks in the streets before we'll ever break bread with the rich.

In summary, there is only one way to invest in XRP, buy and hold, through good and bad, and let time reward you. If you think I am cynical, then you are not nearly cynical enough. Don't be played. Buy, hold, come back when you're rich on the backs of all those that are yet to come into this boiling vat of lawless human greed. There is only one coin in existence that a train the size of a planet can ride on, and it's XRP. Hodl. There, I said it.

Source