The key support is broken
There's going to be a lot of disappointment for those who followed self-appointed market gurus with their "technical analysis" of the constantly appearing bullish triangles, flags and caps as well as brave projections to the moon.
For obvious reasons we will first look at Bitcoin which have been bouncing off 13 weeks WMA (blue) over the last 4 weeks. Today we decisively broke below it and it is safe to assume that this week close has no chance to recover back above 13 weeks WMA. The implications of such an event is huge. Because it means that BTC is heading to the lower $4K dragging the entire ALT universe down together with it.
An obvious temporary relief for the bulls will come when the market gets down to 34 weeks WMA (yellow) or lower $9K in absolute terms where I expect it to bounce strongly back to 13 weeks WMA (currently @ $13K) with possible overshots.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172652/btcusd-w1-simplefx-ltd
The daily chart will give us a closer view. The first daily volatility implied targets have been met and I don't expect the market to go any lower today. Then if we look at the 89 days WMA (brown) it is still slightly upwards looking which will prevent BTC from further falls until it levels off as well as 13 (blue) and 34 (yellow) days WMAs cross below it.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172716/btcusd-d1-simplefx-ltd
Some of the major ALT coins have reached their daily volatility implied targets, some just bounced off the next WMAs and now together with BTC will begin consolidating their losses.
BCH
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172777/bchusd-d1-simplefx-ltd
DASH
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172825/dash-d1-ava-trade-ltd
ETH
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172783/ethusd-d1-simplefx-ltd
ETC
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172789/etcusd-d1-simplefx-ltd
LTC
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172798/ltcusd-d1-simplefx-ltd
NEO
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172840/neousd-d1-ava-trade-ltd
XRP
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/8172810/xrpusd-d1-simplefx-ltd
Hi.
I still don't see enough volume building up, however that could change very quickly.
What do you expect to happen if we close this week well over 13k (14k+)?
I would like to hear the answer to that question also
maybe it would be better to cross that bridge when you get there. right now the TA is pointing the other way. but if things change i'm sure Srezz can provide an update. He did speculate that 13k with a slight overshoot was reasonable. But the conclusion he was drawing from the data, is that the market will continue to the 4/5k range.
Good post, I'm new to crypto, and steemit, first day, why does everyone use a fake name instead of there own? This may seem like a simple question, just trying to figure out why, everywhere i go to search and find info, it's posted by a strange name.
Thank you, srezz! Truly exciting times. Panic will be huge. MACD too shows that the price is very overbought even now (after this long correction) and price is going to correct further. I believe you're right that market will bounce off $9k region. The obvious truth about this fall is that the stronger it will be, the stronger will be the following bouce. So if we will test 5-6k in a week, then it will be possible to return in 10k+ price range. I believe that now is the perfect time to make money. Short or long - doesn't matter. No panic!
In general it looks like we will repeat the 2013-12 events. And if it is true, then Bitcoin will die for a couple of years maybe..
if bts does take a giant shit like 2013, i think it will return faster. around the 3rd qtr. markets are moving faster now and there is more infrastructure in the crypto space.
Probably you're right. We'll see!
BTC seems in a hurry. We may well see 9k today after all.
srezz, at what point do you think this could turn into a bear market, any clear signals to look for or was today a possible signal? thanks
Look at the shape of the weekly WMAs. Even if we hit volatility implied lower $4K we are still going to be in a bull market.
gotcha, so i assume this is just another correction and once its resolved we will continue another uptrend wave. thanks
Hey people I just want to throw it out there. Go back and look at the 2013 bitcoin and see the reasonable possibility of something similar to that happening now and continuing to do things like this over the next 10 years that,seems pretty reasonable to me. (Ppl yell it’s a bubble, then it pops and then hits new highs, ppl yell its a bubble it pops and then hits new highs)
A pull back 20,000k to 5000k isn’t really a big deal when it was selling for around $1000 or less, less than a year ago. Also look at many of the altcoins charts compared to bitcoin, we see when they hit new highs they were having pullbacks of nearly 80%. So I feel that bitcoin’s chart could do something similar to what a lot of these all coins were doing. There needs to be balance.
As a trader or owner. It’s easy, just don’t sell and don’t invest more then you can lose. If you do this you should not be sweeting the fluctuations.
Look I think btc can be over 100k by 2020. And I’ve made my investing strategy based on this. The wourld has yet to understand what The idea of decentralization really means. Hell we still haven’t figured out the full potential of the Internet.
Very wise thoughts.. thank you
true that.
is this the work of wall street? futures chart looks awful
I've said many times that with introduction of futures the Wall Street now has the tools to make as much money on the way down as on the way up.
Happy new year Srezz. This bounce from 9k to 13k that you expect. Do you think the 9k/13k can hold or are you pretty set on the market turning bear and moving to the sub 5k level.
Thx. Or just not clear yet?
You can never be sure with the markets. But personally I think - yes, it's going to go low with lots of victims on its way down.
Happy NY to you too!
agreed
Srezz, one quick question-
You mentioned BTC will fall as low as 10k before it bounce. So are you seeing something else other than what you analyzed few days back? Just curious..
And thanks for the balanced and timely analysis.
A few days back BTC was above the key dynamic support provided by the 13 weeks WMA and all my projections at the time have been built assuming that it will hold. But since it didn't, now it became a pretty strong resistance. Furthermore, in corrections the market tend to oscillate between 3 major WMAs. So, since 13 weeks WMA gave up the next one - i.e. 34 weeks WMA will be in line to take charge.
@SREZZZZ my first steemit post, directed to you, my old friend. I've learnt the error in my ways about the validity of T.A and I wanted to reach out to thank you for the all the time you put in to helping everyone on the board. I've been tryin myself here and there, but you're the man and I wanted to reach out with some good vibes for ya ol friend. Best to you dude ;)
Thank you Dally for your kind words. Happy trading and tons of profit to you!
Any chance of you coming back to CC, or at least for a guest post?
Sorry, but I have very limited time even for this blog.
Thank you, Srezz
Hi Srezz! What do you think about the market now? Will the BTC correction continue? Thanks
I gave the target of this bounce from the lower $9K in my Market Update - 13 week WMA which currently is @$ 13107 (Bitfinex). Everything else will rise together with BTC just with different velocity.
so far so right :) thanks a lot
thank you kindly.
I think i know the master you are talking about, his sheep have been led to the slaughter. They are loving the BCC suggestion he just recently posted
Hi Srezz this master h00pla mentions above i'm sure i know who he's speaking of, after seeing a few of his posts is he following the correct fundamentals of EWs or is he bending some of the rules for upvotes etc.
And Thank you for the updates
He doesn't bend any rules. Bullish triangles on the top of bullish triangles with Elliott Waves projections are good when the market is on the rise. But when corrections begin this methodology becomes blind. Because ABC correction can morph into WXY correction and WXY correction can morph into WXYXZ correction etc. and all these different types of corrections totally depend on one's personal judgement . Or, in other words, such methodology of the market forecasting is completely arbitrary.
This will change everything.
Question is : to what point bitcoin can drag everything down ? May we see a decoupling of some cryptos ?
I'd say ETH and NEO would probably be most resilient.
Thanks.
I was obviously thinking about ETH (and IOTA resilience will be of great interest to me, but as far as I know yo do not actively follow it).
Don't see any resilience in IOTA. I've tried it myself and got rid of it. The technology is still very raw.
OK, thanks. Yes, it is still not quite useable ATM.
But hell, if we let TA aside, as a computer scientist, I cannot help but find it THE answer to blockchain scaling issues/dead end. Someone had to come with something like this (there is not a lot of true mathematical solutions, graph is the only viable one), and it's IOTA, as for now. The vision behind it is great. I will wait for it to mature… Or to fail, but I do not think so.
It's a great speculative tool though. It has one of the best rates of price velocity and volatility.
I still have to master some stupid fears to be able to fully play this game. :)
sexual desire, hunger, laziness, fear and greed - these are the forces that turn this world around and you can not do anything about them. What you can do is to manage your risk.
In the cash market without leverage commit no more than 30% of your available funds to such games and you'll be just fine.
Hey Srezz, thank you very much for the TA.
Quick question ,Is the lower 4k target possible in the near term (weeks)? I remember that you mentioned in a comment that this might take months
Nothing set in stone in the markets. This weekly target is valid for the next 12 weeks. The 34 weeks WMA provides a very strong support. (currently @ $8862). The only time BTC penetrated below it was back in 2013.
It must be some very negative black swan event for BTC to break below it at once. Otherwise I expect the market to bounce around it for quite some time.
Thank you!
Just a minor note: At least on charts based on Bitfinex data, we were below the 34W WMA in much of 2014-2015, following the end of 2013 peak and subsequent crash. But since Oct 2015, we have been consistently above the 34W WMA.
Many thanks for the posts!
That's another story. Breaking below takes time and effort. Staying below is nothing extraordinary.