ETH/USD possible Elliott Wave Count
The problem with all recent ETH moves up is that there's no clear cut 5 wave internal structure in any of them which would imply the end of the correction in wave II of (III).
What we see instead is one 3 wave corrective pattern following another 3 wave corrective pattern. As of now it appears that we have a Symmetrical Triangle correction.
For this pattern to be confirmed we need the last leg down in wave E to around $200 with the following beginning of an impulse wave 1 of (III) up.
https://ibb.co/gtBS6a
What makes me unsure of this pattern either is that we are very close to its completion whereas the minimum time requirement for wave II of (III) is 0.38 of wave I of (III) time which should bring us to the 24th of August. So, the correction may well morph into something a lot more complex than what is presented here.
Please bear this in mind when making your buy/sell decisions that this is just one of the working ideas to consider. Corrections extremely difficult to predict.
PS. A move above $230 will invalidate this wave count.
@srezz - I have nowhere near the technical analysis skills, but I've been watching these patterns develop intensely as well.
Looking at different time intervals, the only thing that is clear at the moment is that nothing is clear. However, I've been coming back to the 1 day charts for the last month in the hopes of seeing some significant crossovers develop. We've finally crossed on a couple indicators, and it seems the next few days may be telling. Aside from the implied trajectory of the MACD indicator the trend may still be unclear, but it's looking more hopeful.
Thanks as always for your more nuanced analysis. Much appreciated.
Would it be safe to say our upward momentum came from the BTC fork scare? We were in a complete downward trend until a few days before... once the hype from the fork dies off, we would resume our downward trend, no? Unless we get some news?
We are in the correction mode, and it's the most unpredictable stage of all. There's always a fundamental story behind the market moves. However, based on trading experience I never rely on fundamental stories because on too many occasions markets do completely the opposite of what they are supposed to be doing based on logic. The short answer to your question, - I don't know.
When I see technical evidence only then I'll be able either to confirm or decline your statement.
Thank you for your insight. However, not being a technician I had to re read your post many times. I still don't really grasp it. Are you saying there "might" be another downward correction by August 24th? If so to 200 level or below?
What I'm saying is this: for the above-presented wave count ETH must go down in wave "E" to around $200. If it doesn't and instead goes up above $230 then this wave count is incorrect. Both moves are equally possible. So, the probability of this wave count is 50%.
Thanks...please remember, not all 400 followers of you, most of which are from CryptoCompare, like myself, are not of your special mindset or have your special technical vocabulary. I was always taught to know your audience and use words and grammar to fit the situation. Maybe you are and have misjudged your audience. Just saying...just sayn'
If you want to follow me the basics of TA must be learned. I expect my followers not to follow me blindly but to use their own heads. That's the audience I'm counting on and targeting my posts at.
If you are unable or unwilling to grasp TA basics then there's nothing much to discuss.
Well put
Hi srezz, how would you recommend those followers (I'm one of them by the way) to learn the basics of TA ? Please don't get me wrong, I'm really willing to learn.
srezz, this was one of the more detailed posts you have made which means the price movement must be intriguing (or random). my question is, do you think the upward movement of the overall market has any bearing on the next movement for ETH? As of right now it would seem lots of alts are coming on strong, and maybe this new confidence after the fork scare could affect ETH positively? maybe this question has zero bearing on the TA. i just feel like the market overall is gaining some traction again and i feel like this can only help ETH's cause even though the TA is not giving any tells. thanks again
Of course, general sentiment is the main driving force behind the market moves.