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RE: My high probability EW count for BTC

in #cryptocurrency7 years ago

Thanks as always for sharing your thoughts.

You are ultimately proposing an extremely bullish setup with this count if I am reading it correctly. In my mind that would be the healthiest scenario for the long run.

I am curious about how this longer term outlook intersects with your previous update from last week though. You had mentioned in a comment that if we have a weekly close above the $12k mark in the short-term that it would signal a new bull market. In my mind, a new bull would imply new ATHs without a lower low, but this analysis shows that a lower low is likely and that ATHs would be months away at a minimum.

I am mostly curious to know if your outlook has changed at all or if this is just a difference in projection horizons that I have noticed. I.e. 12 day, 12 wk, 12 mo

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As anybody else I may be wrong. Especially with EW analysis. But there are certain points which make me think that we are still in correction:

  1. The internal structure of the current move up. It doesn't look to me as a clear cut impuls wave;
  2. Insufficient time for a correction of the 2.5 years bull run;
  3. Insufficient depth of the correction as it didn't meet the weekly volatility implied targets . Also, historically BTC tends to retrace 80% + of its major moves up.

All solid points. Plus, the weekly chart for BTC just looks like it is begging for a C wave down.

It's always possible that the accelerating adoption/speculation rates could keep the bull running, so it'll be fun watching things unfold.

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