RE: Despite market optimism I still don't think we bottomed 📉🤔
Yes, I saw your post and it's enticing and definitely a possibility but I remain very skeptical and am ready for the scenario I outlined in my post above.
It's not just about the patterns either. I mainly go off of the feeling I get from the market sentiment. I simply don't think the market emotions are correct yet. We haven't had capitulation yet.
As for the two highlighted blocks not being the same, yes that is correct - we're only about halfway through. The remainder of our current 'block' still needs to occur IMO, which is the hopefuly rally -> failure -> slow decline to definitive bottom. By this estimate, we are still many months off from reaching this definitive bottom. To me that makes sense, because it's going to take a while to truly dishearten everybody.
We will see though! Once we breach 8K the journey to 10K shouldn't be far off, which is the make-or-break level IMO
Ah, you and I are seeing this differently. That's great! When people all agree then nobody learns anything.
Okay, I see your arguments. My counter argument is that capitulation did happen and that the bear is over (I have a post about that too 😉).
It will be interesting to see which of us is more accurate with their predictions.
I would wish you luck, but that would be bad for me and worse for the markets! 😂
Hah no don't wish me luck! The opposite rather, I wish I would be wrong ;)
I am curious to know one thing though: When did you enter the crypto (investing) space? Have you joined in 2017 or were you around before then? I mainly ask because I'm interested in trying to find out if my assumption that people who are new(er) to the space will have a more optimistic outlook in this situation.
In any case, whether we go up or down really doesn't matter much to me. I never trade BTC anymore so I have my position and I just hodl it out. Trading BTC is super stressful...the train could leave any moment without you, if you're not on it for one second
I started buying in May 2017. But trying to pigeon-hole me is an exercise in futility, I'm very non-standard. I did market research first (March / April) based on the entire history before deciding to buy. My initial days were good, but then I ran into the drop from June to Mid September. I lost over half of my investment within a few months. Of course I got it back later on. And then lost it again... And am now in limbo! I've never cared much - counting as I do on the long-term upward trend.
Rest assured that I am never optimistic . Ever. I despise optimists, I can't tell you how much I despise them! As a professional operations planner they make my life an absolute misery! I have so many examples of that this week at work already!
My outlook may be optimistic, but when it is, it is firmly based in realism. Wait until the bull market, then you'll be calling me a pessimist!
Once again: this post: https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@bitbrain/i-m-realistic-about-the-crypto-market-you-aren-t
Oh no I'm not trying to pigeon hole you in any way. It's just something I wondered for myself. It's something that I'm starting to notice: all the longer term veterans are really pessimistic it seems like.
From the outskirts it looks like a divide between those who think we have bottomed and those who think we haven't yet and I'm wondering if under the surface that divide is perhaps correlated to the length of time in the space (read: numbed down bitterness). Which will end up being true is a mystery. On one hand the people with more tme in the market have a more historical outlook, but that may be an out-dated approach in a market dominated by people newer to the space.