At what price-level will you ACTUALLY buy Bitcoin again? 📉📈 What's YOUR buy-in price?
As Bitcoin plummets downward in a massive sell-off, ready to break down below the higher-low trendline, I find myself asking: At what price will I be buying again? What price am I ultimately waiting for before investing more FIAT? And, what about you?
BEAR MARKET
Ever since Bitcoin has reached it's peak around the year's end we've been in a downward bear market and the current market outlook is far from positive as Bitcoin continues to loose steam. I've commented before on the similarities between the present day and the 2013/2014 bubble and following bear market, but from the looks of it we're actually going to go through another Bitcoin winter after all.Despite some positive sentiment a few days ago, my prediction of dropping down below a price of $5000 per Bitcoin is back on the table as far as I'm concerned. If we drop any lower, which could be any moment now, the next stop being $6000 is almost a guarantee, and that opens the door to drop even lower and set a new lower low.
CARE VERY LITTLE; BUY BITCOIN
I'm a HODLer and have hodled through the darkest days before in the 2014-2016 period. Though I had given up hope back then, now my perspective has changed and I see a potential crypto-winter as an opportunity instead of a disaster. Sure I would love to shoot up to the moon - but I welcome the opportunity to increase my stack before we do. In my mind, finding the bottom in this bear market is akin to finding the bottom and buying Bitcoin at $220 each last time around. Buying Bitcoin at those levels during the true desperation, is what it really means to 'BTFD'.
But where to find the bottom? A big question, but maybe we can tone it down. If you're a true believer like me, the real bottom doesn't matter all that much. The real question becomes: Where is your bottom?
At what price will YOU be ready to buy more Bitcoin?
Don't misinterpret my question though! I'm not asking at what price you think would be a good moment to hypothetically buy in. I'm asking at what price will YOU actually FOMO the hell in and actually make a real-life bank transfer to buy more Bitcoin.What price would be so low that you would be unable to resist buying more Bitcoin, even if just a little bit, in order to not miss that opportunity?
I think answering this question honestly is an important one in our joined quest in trying to predict where the actual bottom will be. If you're not lining up to FOMO in right now, chances are the same goes for everybody else. So at what point would you be lining up to actually buy?
For me, the answer is: Below $4500 I will start buying Bitcoin again with FIAT money. Market morale will be extremely low by then, but if we drop to $4500 I don't consider $3000 unrealistic either. Anywhere between those two price levels I hope to complete my stack of Bitcoin.
So, what's your FOMO-buy-in-price-point? When will you actually start spending FIAT again?
Actually I just bought some at $6,645 just now! Not sure where it will go in these crazy hours, but to me it sounded like a good price for BTC ;-)
Oh wow, such daring, much wow! I salute thee, true believer!
I hope for your sake we won't go down much further...
I'm still not quite there yet myself! Of course it has to do with my limited financial RL means too. Maybe if I had a little more financial wiggle room I'd be buying some too but as it is I need a lower price still!
Yeah, I know it might be a bit early, but I like buying just above previous support levels. If it goes down even further, I'll buy more at the next support level ;-)
Below $5k is a very big support level combined with the psychological price. It would mean around 75% discount, or if BTC hits 20k again, a 300% ROI. This will be a major signal for also 'newbies' to get in.
I'm not convinced BTC itself is going back up. I'd only buy it to immediately convert to something else. I think there's a reasonable chance PoW is dead, and BTC doesn't really have a path out of it.
I'm trying to figure out where I'm interested in Steem though. May depend more on what I want to build here than on investment predictions; I'm kind of treating SP like a box of Legos anyway.
PoS dead? Did you mean to say PoW is dead? Since it's about Bitcoin..
If so, I have to disagree. I am getting more and more convinced of the merits of PoW and Bitcoin itself. My path has taken me from Bitcoin and Litecoin in 2013, to altcoins in 2017, but inevitably back to Bitcoin as I realize that none of the technological upgrades of the alts matter. The only things that matters in a blockchain are decentralization and the security, censorship-resistance and trustless environment it brings. Bitcoin is the only one who has that, and the enormous hashing rate has crossed over to the point where it guarantees a certain level of security that no other chain can offer.
edit: this is coming from someone with 75% position in alts.
They had to put those next to each other on the keyboard. Fixed.
I'm not making a prediction, I don't know that it's even 25% likely. But if it's 10% likely it's trouble.
The resource cost is also a pretty big deal.
That's what I thought too for a while. But now I see it as a feature. If the Bitcoin network uses up as much electricity as the country of Ireland (as I've read) then that means that the Bitcoin network costs as much as half that in order to compromise it. That is some serious security.
If you want to transfer 1 billion USD, you want the absolute best reliable security available, and Bitcoin's high energy cost is a pretty damn good safeguard that's only getting better and better.
Andreas Antonopoulous further had some interesting things to say about resource cost too:
I don't really have a buy in point in mind. I'd need to feel better about the market direction first..and for now its "wait and see" over here. Its hard to judge the value of BTC, or any cryptocurrency using a price to earnings ratio or any traditional valuation metric, so I look at demand mostly. Right now Im not seeing the BTC demand increasing!
Ditto, I don't see the demand increasing just yet until we go lower..
Oh Bitcoin, you adorable rollercoaster!