Derive predicts Bitcoin at $125,000 by June
Bitcoin is currently facing challenges in maintaining its position above the significant $100,000 threshold. Despite this struggle, there is a growing sense of optimism among traders regarding a potential upward movement in its price.
Dr. Sean Dawson, who leads the research department at Derive, an on-chain options protocol, recently published a report indicating an increase in the likelihood of Bitcoin reaching $125,000 by the end of June 2025
. This probability has been revised upward from 41.9% to 44.4%, suggesting a considerable shift in sentiment.
This analysis comes in the context of Bitcoin's recent performance. The cryptocurrency has been trading below the critical $100,000 level since February 7, after it recorded an all-time high of $109,000 on January 20, shortly before the inauguration of Donald Trump.
The current market dynamics appear to be changing, with downside risks diminishing. The chance of Bitcoin falling back to $75,000 has decreased from 17.8% to 12.1%.
This outlook contrasts sharply with comments made by Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who in January warned of a potential drop to the $70,000 to $75,000 range, suggesting such a decline could lead to a minor financial crisis.
In the broader context, market sentiment within the cryptocurrency space is currently marked as neutral, with a score of 48 out of 100 as of February 14. This score indicates some underlying caution among investors. Trader Jelle points out that the market will likely remain unstable until Bitcoin can reclaim the $100,000 mark.
However, the long-term forecasts for Bitcoin are encouraging. VanEck, a prominent asset management firm, stands by its prediction of a “medium-term peak” expected in the first quarter of 2025. Analysts from VanEck foresee Bitcoin reaching around $180,000 at that peak, while they predict Ethereum will exceed $6,000.
Amid this consolidation phase below $100,000, the steady interest from institutional investors and the successes of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) indicate that a bullish trend may return.
Many analysts continue to express confidence in the potential for Bitcoin’s growth in the forthcoming months. Notably, figures like Cathie Wood from ARK Invest are even more optimistic, forecasting that Bitcoin could reach an astonishing $1.5 million by the year 2030.