Daily Crypto Analysis - 12th Jan - BTC ETH BCH Technical Analysis
Bitcoin
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD 4h)
Bitcoin broke downwards out of yesterday's ascending channel and made a retest of support at $12800. There was a sharp rejection of this support level, suggesting some strength here. But we then saw a sharp rejection of the $14200 resistance level, leaving us in a temporary flat channel.
In the bigger picture, this represents a higher low for Bitcoin, which is a sign of strength and consolidation. But, I would wait until we break out of our flat channel before taking any directional positions, as this could be a bearish consolidation ready for a push to new lows.
(Bitstamp:BTCUSD Daily)
On the higher time frame we appear to be at the lower bound of a bullish pennant. The volume profile for a pennant suggests that we would see strong volume on the initial dip followed by greater volume consolidation. I'm not so sure whether the volume pattern that we can see fits that description - the volume is remaining decidedly high throughout the length so far.
The bull run towards the peak was over $14000 followed by a $8000 dip to the current support. So, if this formation were to break downwards then a target movement of $8000 would be expected, bringing us to roughly $5100. This level also brings us nicely to the peak of one of the previous bull runs.
Before you run off and open shorts - Bitcoin is still to be seen as bullish until we see a high volume break through the support level. The analysis I've laid out is for the bearish possibility, but is currently waiting for confirmation.
Ethereum
(Bitstamp:ETHUSD 1h)
We saw a sharp rejection of the 38.2% support early this morning and are currently pushing up to retest short term resistance levels. We appear to be within an ascending channel currently, which I would see as a bearish sign, and I strongly suspect that we will break downwards from it to retest support. Keep an eye on the resistance zones for double tops.
I would recommend holding off opening positions until we see a retest of support and a large double bottom.
(Poloniex:ETHBTC 1h)
The ETHBTC ratio is a very different story. There is a strong support line which has been repeatedly rejected and volume is consolidating well after the last bull run. This is looking like a good setup for building up positions near the support line. We would expect to see a large increase in volume at the start of the next leg up, so we should have a bit of prior warning if we wish to wait for bullish confirmation.
Bitcoin Cash
(Bitfinex:BCHUSD 4h)
After the failed break of the resistance zone BCH made a higher low on the pullback, a good bullish signal. We still remain within the consolidation zone, but I suspect we will see another test of the resistance zone in the next day or two.
(Poloniex:BCHBTC 4h)
BCH tells a similar story to ETH on the ratio with good short term volume consolidation and strong support on the pullback. The whole consolidation period has shown a very strong volume profile, with much lower volume in the pullback than the major bull run and a pickup in volume as we've retested resistance levels. This short term consolidation should make a good area to build up positions for the next leg of the medium term bull run.
Disclaimer
I will do my best to give unbiased, objective analysis, but I can make no promises about my accuracy.
All posts are based on my personal opinions and ideas and do not constitute professional financial investment advice.
Edit 16/01/18:
Fixed the BTCUSD Daily chart as it was inaccurate.