3 generations of blockchain + Bear case scenario
First generation of blockchain technology was represented by Bitcoin. Bitcoin solved an idea about creation of decentralized money, so when Jamie and Christine want to send value to each other there would be a mechanism that allows doing that without involving a trusted third party (banks). As we know Bitcoin eventually turned out to be a very successful experiment, however, transactions between Jamie and Christine can have more than just the active moving money associated with them. With Bitcoin we solved only: who sends, how much he sends, and to who he sends.
But there is a story behind every transaction, and some transactions come with terms and conditions. E.g. Jamie wants to send money, IF and only IF, Christine does something for him.
As a result, Ethereum was created in 2014 and has brought a programming language to the blockchain. A second generation blockchain essentially allows smart contracts to be written, so when Jamie wants to send money to Christine, all these additional terms and conditions can be built in to the transaction. With that we were able to apply blockchain to broader use cases, and Ethereum also became a huge success.
Unfortunately, with project expanding more and more issues were displayed. We realized, Ethereum will not be albe to scale for millions of users, so how can something like that serve as a world computer? What about governance? Every dispute results in a hard fork. Imagine every political dispute would result in a new country created. There is a need for a proper voting system in order to prevent hard forks happening all the time. Also, as blockchains are becoming more mainstream there will be a greater need for a pleasant development experience, and Ethereum just doesn't deliver that.
Third generation blockchains should contain solutions to problems witnessed in previous generations. All the above issues should be addressed, and solved. Technology is evolving. EOS, Cardano, IOTA, ICON, and others, are approaching these concepts with different methods, new methods, and they are doing a pretty good job. First, they are the youngest projects out there, so they are still in the early phases of their development. Second, their structure is more complicated, and as such, it is reasonable to estimate that this kind of projects take more time on average to result in a working product. If third generation blockchains manage to deliver, and I believe they eventually will, they will be a different beast. 
At that point, to use technology as old as Bitcoin is, is quite frankly, unreasonable, and probably stupid. If big investors realize that, and I am sure they do, than they also understand that moon and lambo can only come from Ethereum and Bitcoin. Because, only projects with utility value out there are those two. Other potential big coins are all works in progress and a long way from a working product, they are valued purely on speculations. Ethereum and Bitcoin still have the ability to completely dominate the market, but why would big investors want to invest in them, if we speculate that third generation will completely outperform older versions.
It is impossible to predict what will happen, but, scenario where Bitcoin and Ethereum price will stay under 10k, and dipping even further down for a long time, untill first out of the third generation coins deliver us everything they promised, definitely has a decent chance happening. In my opinion Bitcoin and even Ethereum, in today versions, have absolutely 0% chance to survive in 3-4 years.
What do you think? Comment and don't forget to press the like button!;)
great and very comprehensive analysis, and i completely agree with what you say. i always wonder why bitcoin could remain so strong after the segwit2x fail. but maybe lightning will do the trick. certainly in this new and experimental as is crypto, long-term existence as such is still a usp and valuable. let's see which 3rd gen tech is going to fly, this might be the Amazons and Googles of tomorrow, whereas the rest will go under.
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I say the same! Bitcoin is now nearly 10 years old. Would you use a 10 years old computer? or buy one of these? But there are reasons, why BTC will still rise in prize:
The point why Bitcoin will be strong in future, is because IT IS one of the most famous cryptos and a kind of digital gold. The amount is limited and we mined already 17millions/21millions. It's the same like gold. These days it is easyly possible to paint steel with golden color that nobody see the difference, but on the market it is worthless. The price is made in our minds.
The second reason for the btc rise in 2018 will be the fact, to buy nearly EVERY cryptocurrency you need first bitcoins.
The third reason is the lightning network and cheaper sending taxes in the future.
(My opinion, no financal advise)
Very true, valid reasons for BTC bull case throughout 2018,2019., and is impossible to exactly predict...but on a long run...
the way I see it, even if all this goes as planned for BTC, they will still be just an old crap piece of software, when Cardano launches full product...that might happen in 2022 but when it will I just dont think BTC has enough room for upgrades to compete.
If we as humans will eventually be able to make a change from fiat to crypto than I think we will also be able to discard BTC fast.
Yeah , it is old. And there will be better versions of BTC. But I think it will have always a lot of worth, because it is the father off all the cryptos.
Of course, for investing it is more intresting to put money in the new technologys, because in a long term it is possible to 100X or even 1000X, when you buy at a good moment. And i agree that the market dominance of BTC will slowly go down
For future viewers: price of bitcoin at the moment of posting is 8580.40USD
this is as obvious as the death of a motorolla! in technologies you can not stand still. share innovations