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RE: I See Bubble People

Will it help you be a better farmer at all if I have told you that this year we are going to have hail 5% of the time and wind 60% of the time if I didn't tell you when?

The point of technical analysis is to give you an indication of when. And over a large sample size, yes, probability becomes relevant.

which still can't beat a monkey making random choices or someone hodling.

Did you even read the article you posted? The monkeys were more profitable because they picked smaller, high risk companies. That doesn't mean their picks were necessarily better overall.

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I consider "better" what makes more money. And they won.

That's like saying someone is a "better" poker player because their 2-7 hand beat someone's pocket aces. It's about probabilities.

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