You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
RE: I See Bubble People
Oh yes. Human psychology is pretty random. You can confirm that pretty easily by just examining human relationships. There are so many constituents in places with so many people taking place that the inter-relationships and effects become chaotic.
If someone else is drawing the patterns — which is the case in the crypto world where 5 companies in China control 90% of the market then "patterns" are pointless. They work much like hunting traps and unless you are not them, you are going to be the victim. I have seen any making a killing for a while and then losing pretty badly.
It is much like the casino. Eventually the vast majority of traders will exit with a loss.
Pretty random and random are vastly different things.
Also, patterns have seemed to work more often on bitcoin than any other "market vehicle" that I've ever personally traded. The whales seem to want them to work, which is smart -- it's ideal to have the market participants pushing price when you want them to and using the hype that's already there to rocket light-years past traditional targets.
Hyperbolic moves are what the big boys want, because that means lots of dumb money coming in at multiple X levels, giving them enough bidders to sell their big positions for 5~10 X profits.
Agreed. But it's mostly because this game requires a godly amount of patience and persistence, both of which 95% of people don't and never will have. People are good at rationalizing, that's about it.
dude, even traders have admitted that Bitcoin this year was perhaps the hardest coin to trade.
Actually any noob knows that you cash out gradually on parabolic moves. common sense really.
and it makes you wonder. if the tool are "good" then why are they fucking up? ;)
Noobs?...haha, dude you're funny.
If they knew that then the parabolic move would never happen. No, the noobs don't start buying until the majority of the move has happened and they wait for it to "hit the moon" because they're in the enthusiasm, greed and delusion stages. Again, patterns play out on the market thanks to some very predictable psychological weaknesses in humans, that's why the big money nearly always cashes out ahead of the "noobs" and the the dumb money doesn't even think to sell before they're back in losses.
This cycle has literally played out millions of times. People will rationalize why they lost instead of spending the energy to figure out the real reason -- that's the real problem why most traders don't make money -- their egos are in the way.
Because most people don't have the balls to stick around long enough to confirm that their trading strategy, with a 55% win percentage, WILL have periods of draw-down, but also WILL pay off in the end, just like the casino with its small edge.
And the only reason why the edge is there to begin with is because the majority of the people in the game aren't anywhere near psychologically fit enough to be in it.