February 16th is a very important date for the cryptocurrency markets
That marks the date the Chinese will celebrate their Chinese Lunar New Year.
The Lunar New Year is much more akin to our version of Christmas than just another day celebrating the turning of a year.
Many presents are bought, vacations are planned, and trips are taken.
Basically it becomes a massive spending holiday for the Chinese.
In 2016 alone, over $110 billion was spent around this time. This year well over $100 billion is projected to be spent again around this time.
Why is this important for the cryptocurrency markets?
Like it or not, Asia very much still has a strangle hold on cryptocurrency trading.
Don't believe me?
Just check the prices any time a negative headline comes out of South Korea, Japan, or China to see how important that region is for cryptocurrencies.
This holiday seems to have a major effect on cryptocurrency prices as evidenced by the charts over the past few years.
Check out the chart of bitcoin over the last 4 years in January:
Early 2015
Early 2016
Early 2017
Early 2018
Are you noticing any patterns here?
Traditionally January as been a terrible month to be a bitcoin investor. However, it has been a great time to be a bitcoin buyer.
In each case, after making lows in the middle of January prices rebounded a few weeks later, and ultimately went on to make new highs later that year.
Will this year turn out to be more of the same?
It's impossible to say for sure, I'm betting on it.
Stay informed my friends.
Image Sources:
https://www.colourbox.com/vector/happy-chinese-new-year-2018-vector-27646096
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoins-early-2018-woes-written-in-the-stars-and-moon
Follow me: @jrcornel
Let’s just all hope that the year of the DOG 🐕 is not one for Cryptos as well. Steem On!
Wow that's an interesting analysis. Thanks for sharing I am holding my cryptos. :D
So when do you think the market will turn again?
I did an update on Bitcoin that might be valuable to you:
Bitcoin (BTC) Update - Analysis
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@benkalashnikov/bitcoin-btc-update-analysis
Me too 👍
How about Chinese crypto ban this year?
Apparently they are finding ways around that, at least for now. IE buying from Hong Kong.
There's a great reason why crypto dips before Chinese New Year that I haven't heard folks explain yet: unlike for Christmas, Chinese New Year gifts are monetary. So naturally crypto gets liquidated into fiat before the event.
Once the New Year is over, the selling pressure disappears and some of the received money might even go back into crypto.
Keep in mind that most of those receiving the cash are young folks who get the gifts from their parents and relatives, and in places like South Korea they are probably putting some of this up into crypto.
Many Chinese people give out red pockets! I'm going to visit relatives this year and since I'm 18, I'm old enough to give out money now :(((
However, I'll also be getting money from my relatives too! Many kids around my age are deciding to invest into cryptos and many adults are giving cryptos to kids.
It may not seem like a lot of money but if 1 million children (tiny percentage of kids in China) invest 100 dollars (most children get more), that's 100,000,000 injection into the market which isn't a small number considering just days ago 30btc pushed the price of btc down 6% if I remember correctly.
Good points. I am interested to see what happens when we start getting tax refunds for people in the US as well. We could be looking at a very big spring for crypto investors...
This is a great point! I have a feeling that tax season will bring us a huge pump in crypto, simply due to people wanting to be able to get some money in.
I have to say that even I will take some of my refund and pump it into certain projects I really believe in.
Haha, that's good information! They will prolly buy lots of Neo!
It's so cool that parents in China are giving cryptos to their children! Things like this will definitely be good for the entire crypto market, and get some many new people invested.
The charts look very similar, I have to show my friends this, lol They're panicking!
Better run and tell them before the panicsell!
Thanx for this news your post is verry knowledgeful
I'm fairly new to crypto investing and have been disappointed in the funk the markets have been in to start the year. I hope the buying picks up in earnest soon. We've all heard about the tidal wave of institutional money coming into crypto in 2018. I'd like to start seeing it, big time.
Thanks for the information. I am hoping you are correct. February 16th is actually my 16th wedding aniversary, so I can just imagine the markets going way up that day and me looking at my phone a lot to see how much my crypto prices have increased and getting in trouble, haha.
Haha well they should start trending up before that, but if that is the date it decides to moon, good luck to you! :)
Thanks, I will need the luck (or just some self control) if it is mooning that day. ;)
Thanks for sharing this analysis. Wishing all the best for cryptocurrency in the near future. Eagerly waiting for the the 16th Feb. :)
It is great to know that there is reasons for the markets to move at times and why it happens!
sure it is :)
This post has been upvoted and resteemed. I started following you to see more of your work!
Your posts are very helpful for me to understand the cryptoworld better!
Good point. This is now been widely reported. Trouble is if anyone observes a pattern in the financial market that is immediately an arbitrage opportunity. Bitcoin escaped that largely last few years as there were no vehicles to short it easily in the futures market. Now there is. So my guess is, as this pattern is now widely observed, trading opportunity from this pattern will be dwindling.