Crypto Market Predictions
All bets are off if there is a major network problem or new, significant and detrimental legislation in a major Western country
The top is not in.
Most people would say that we are or have recently been in a crypto bull market. Many would go so far to say that we are in a "bubble." I wouldn't disagree. But strong bull market rallies like this tend to end in blow-off tops with the market leaders. We haven't seen that yet at least not in bitcoin.
The tops might be in on the altcoins. Virtually all of them have spiked. A rising tide lifts all boats as evidenced by major moves in previously dead-in-the-water crypto coins like doge and quark. If you go back to previous bitcoin breakouts in 2013, however, you will notice that the altcoins peaked out about two weeks before the peak in bitcoin. Bitcoin and altcoins did not tank in unison (until bitcoin collapsed). The same basic scenario happened at the peak of the dotcom bubble in late 1999- March 2000: the market leaders/highest quality stocks rallied until the end while the more speculative stocks stumbled. The "market breadth" of winners/losers narrowed until the ultimate day of reckoning when they all went down the toilet.
So my guess is that the top is not in... for bitcoin and ethereum AND the leading altcoins.
If we spend some time consolidating here, then it is within the context of a much larger bull market. We will ultimately go much higher. If bitcoin/ethereum/ethereum classic/dash/litecoin rebound in only a few days and are close to ATHs, then the final parabolic move is nigh.
Disclaimer: do your own research, not investment advice, yes I drank the Kool-aid, blah, blah, blah.
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Bull markets climb a wall of fear. I agree that consolidation is healthy, but sure does not seem to be a market top when I continually ask friends/acquaintances which cryptos they hold, and their response is crickets.
Once my neighbors/coworkers start entering positions en masse then that will be the true top. However, as you said, if any major Western Gov steps in (or the SEC reams all of the major exchanges) then all bets are off and look out below.