I can't say that I agree with you on number 2. The reason I say that is that I can't differentiate between ICOs and coins listed on an exchange. The amount of volatility puts all coins at effectively the same risk level. On any day, any coin could drop 90%, which is close enough to 100% in my book. Would you really be that surprised to see Bitcoin drop to $2000? That would be down 90%. So from that perspective, I don't see a difference between your number 1 and number 2, which is to be prepared to lose all of your money. From another perspective, I would say that the asymmetric risk of ICO's make them a less risky choice than established coins. I'm not a fan of all ICO's or even most ICO's, but the ICO's with a solid team, lots of social engagement, and buzz can, and have, done 100x. I would take 10, $500 strong ICO investments over $5k worth of BTC.