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RE: SegWit “Locked-In:” Bitcoin’s Bigger Blocks Only An Activation Away!
Yes, and no. In this case, there will be another split because community and miners(not as much) are divided as to which Bitcoin to support. Many people also claim that 2MB is useless now that we have Bitcoin Cash.
Future forks don't necessarily mean new coins. It depends on the miner & community support a coin has. Should Bitcoin need another hard fork, without any politics (meaning 100% support) there won't be a split.
I've written a post on post-SegWit Bitcoin and the consequences of a split here if you'd like to check it out.
Does this still leave the opportunity for SegWit2x to be implemented? To my understanding SegWit and SegWit2x are not the same.
SegWit2X (BIP 91) enforces the original SegWit proposal (BIP 141) by orphaning non-BIP141 blocks, and a hard fork to 2MB 3 months after SegWit activation (which will happen on August 21st).
Alright so, following the hard fork in November there is a possibility of another chain split resulting with a similar alternate chain that does not support the 2 MB increase?
Also, what does the activation on the 21st mean exactly? Just that the network consensus support for BIP141 has surpasses a specific percentage?
Is the hard fork a scheduled event, meaning after block X the protocol is updated with the non-BIP141 exclusion rule?
Sorry for the delayed response. It's not a possibility, it is definitely happening. There will be SegWit + 1MB (Bitcoin Core), SegWit2X and Bitcoin Cash.
The activation of BIP141 requires a lock-in period (2016 blocks) of which 95% are SegWit blocks, and another 2016 blocks for activation, which doesn't require anything and is there as a "buffer" period so that businesses and pools can upgrade their software in time before it activates. Activation is projected to happen on 21st August and SegWit will be running on the Bitcoin mainnet then. Since SegWit has locked in already, we are past the point of no return.
Yes, the 2MB hard fork has been scheduled to occur on block 494784, estimated in November.