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RE: Has anyone noticed that we've been getting mostly positive industry news and negative external factors?
Break even under what conditions? Free electricity and latest mining equipment I assume? Difficulty may start to drop if prices continue to dive although equipment cost is already a sunk cost and if electricity is free then they may as well keep mining!
Good questions. This is from the news release today:
"There are some bullish signs emerging. Bitcoin currently trades at the break-even cost of mining, currently at $8,038, based on a model by Fundstrat’s data scientists Sam Doctor and Ken Xuan. The digital currency bottomed in 2015 when it was at the same multiple relative to mining costs as it is today, and peaked in 2013 at 21 times its mining costs."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-15/bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-sees-more-pain-ahead-before-price-recovery
Agreed @grizgal it is a relatively dynamic/ambiguous metric (mining break-even, that is), but I'd read an estimate that tried to come up with a global average mining price, rather than purely based on US electrical prices. The estimate was in the $4-5k range. Cannot recall the link to provide here, but it seems to coincide with the link @jrcornel provided above citing sub $6k lows in store.
In this entirely nascent, subjective market I will stick to sub $5k bottoms, purely from a psychological standpoint.