I guess it's worth adding one note on your thoughts:
Tether have mostly been adding new supply in batches, lately of 100-250 million $. Maybe that's because of the way Omni works (they just update the new number of tokens, not who holds them), so you may not want to update the supply every time someone deposits 2$. It may be that a similar strategy applies with the reduction of the supply. After all, they would have to buy back the USDT on the market first before they could make it disappear.
There's a valid arbitrage strategy, though, in case cashing out via tether.to actually works. And at least for the Tether guys it probably does:
Buy USDT for $ at 0.98, cash out 1$ per USDT and reduce the supply accordingly. Whether there's enough $ to convert all USDT back, nobody knows.
Don't get me wrong, I totally agree with the many ways Tether is flawed and poisonous. However, I'm trying to understand the options of what may be going on and potentially assign probabilities to them :-)
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ooh, thank you very much for sharing this... I love putting these thoughts out and getting some awesome additions on the comments. I've upvoted you, hopefully to the top so that people get to read this comment.
thanks mate.
Thanks a lot. I love having these discussions, and I usually hope they arise from posts / comments. I also like hearing other people's opinions on that stuff, especially when they're polarizing ;-)
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