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RE: Despite market optimism I still don't think we bottomed 📉🤔
I looked at the charts while I was reading your post...and I think you might not be wrong about it possibly not being the bottom...but I think it's a mistake to use the previous action as a crystal ball. It's not exactly a horrible place to buy though, as long as you can manage to recognize when it's going back down, to sell before the dip, and buy back in. I don't think we can know for certain at this moment what the action is going to be though. We can guess based on previous action, but I wouldn't bet on it not being the low for absolute certain. Steem definately looks like it hasn't reached it's bottom yet, as far as Steem/BTC.
Most alts will probably go lower I think.
And I agree past results are no guarantee for the future, but the 2017-2018 period feels SO much like 2013-2014 it's scary. Down to almost the exact same emotions, logic, even the news reporting is the same. Sometimes it seems like the market has a really short memory. I wouldn't trust it so much, if it hadn't been this similar all this time.. but it has been.
It's not bad though.. because if history does repeat itself, then the future is very bright indeed after we go through the final dip :)
The fact that it's so similar might actually make it end up repeating itself just due to the number of traders that are looking at it. There is a real danger though because there actually is a chance that it was just a frenzy pump.
More people will buy into Bitcoin but the question is what the actual worth is for the number that want it? People always say that Bitcoin has no real worth, which is of course bullshit, but it's based on some reality. FIAT is based on countries and people have established metrics for it's value. No one has established metrics for the value of cryptos, yet. The value of BTC is based on hype and hope. Even at it's worse, it was actually better than Paypal for price when dealing with the movement of large amounts of funds, and it was faster and cheaper than a wire transfer.
All the people that bought Bitcoin when it was high and then listened to that HODL shit are probably crying right now. A lot got into crypto finally at the wrong time. Now they're holding bags that are worth less than half of what they started at. If they either actually do HODL, or trade smartly, or buy in more now that it's down, we're fine, but we might have alienated quite a few. There's a chance that it might not have a new high for a few years. Of course, I think that's a slim chance. :P
I think we're going to have a new low, then a new frenzy.
I agree.. and I do think some people who bought at the top are hurting real bad. And I also agree that some people have become alienated in a sense..
But this is exactly what the hype cycle requires.. the shaking out of all the weak hands. And I'm expecting this short-term bull run to be that shake-out moment.
Is it evil to hope some of the idiots that bought high, then sold way lower buy in again, after it gets the fever high pump, just in time for it to crash again?
Only a little bit :)