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RE: How I value Cryptocurrencies
Nice to read. I like burniski’s framework and nvt ratio and of course relativ value with a catalyst.
Nice to read. I like burniski’s framework and nvt ratio and of course relativ value with a catalyst.
Thanks for the kind words.
I hadn't heard of Burniski's framework before and It is interesting to see how a a fund manager would value an investment. Reading through the mathematics involved though it is clear nobody has an answer for how you value something like Bitcoin accurately. You could either value it based on utility value and velocity of transactions like a traditional currency, or you could value it based on scarcity in which case the number of coins being HODL'd by people like Satoshi, that may never enter the network, have an influence on the price. In this latter case Bitcoin becomes more like a collectable like gold which is not used to drive transactions.
Another major impact on the value of Bitcoin is the emotional investment from the community that uses it and the newsworthiness of stories relating to it. Like the equity markets, a large amount of market movement comes from amateur investors influenced by these articles.
Siraj Raval on youtube wrote an interesting program that analysed market sentiment based upon social media mentions of Bitcoin to predict future price movements with a reasonable amount of success, demonstrating how the news affects the prices: