RE: Crypto Dives AGAIN? Trading and Some Warnings
Hi,
Not sure on what you based your horizontal support line here ? It just seems to me that, pre-january 15th, you could as well have decided to draw it on the 11000 line... I myself am kinda holding to the hope that we don't go too close to (or past down) the 8000 (as this is close to my average entry level) and that we'll see a consolidation, but I'm actually wondering if I wouldn't be better off taking the small profits I still can make, pull back a little and wait for a clear market direction.
I'm also quite tempted to compare the actual situation with an oddly similar price action we met in the past :
Euphoria, parabolic rally, double top, severe correction, 'back on track', even more severe 'correction', nice rally (without volume) and then...
Besides the fact that the support line there seems way more solid, imo, with at least 3 to 4 contact points,
at that time the pullback we saw reached 69% down from the top. In today's price, a similar pullback would put us way below the 8000, around 6000k.
Afterwards, that 2014 'compression' ended on a nice +60% rally... before a downtrend that took 2 years to reverse (and passed trough an 86% down from the ATH - today that would mean something like 2600k).
I totally agree on the not-the-end-of-the-crypto-market part, and I also realize the market is not in the same state it was back in 2014, but still I don't think the possibility of a long term bullmarket ahead can be so easily wiped off. What's your take on it ?
PS : I don't know how this will be read so I feel more comfortable clarifying : I'm not trying to antagonize you, here ; I'm trying to have a discussion and would like to have your opinion - amongst others.
Thanks for reading.
I see the triangle as symbolic, only the upper line is important here - I wanted to show people that Bitcoin is in a triangle, or that it can be seen that way - because most don't so far.
If you want a line that touches some more wicks and candles, take the dotted one... the yello just being a horizontal that more or less touches an earlier resistance level and the point where BTC (and most coins with it) bounced at the new low.
It was a decisive bounce. I know because I had been pressing thumbs that it would fall lower, and it didn't happen. Real support lines if you're wary of an imminent further dip, are way lower.
But I haven't looked for them here, I don't fear the dip, I've been waiting for it as long as Mike Novogratz ;)
The blue and green lines are coming from lows in July and November, each touches another low on its way and this is simply where they all meet or get close to meeting, which may or may not be significant, I see them as possible trend lines - I've watched too many tries to determine a trend on a shorter term these last weeks and I think their angles were all aiming way too high.
I've also compared earlier years and I'm aware of the similarities - we should understand that it' s us who are making the market, if we decide that it will be a three year bear market, then exactly that will happen. Posting on steemit will not influence much, but the people who take turns in telling us that "bitcoin may dip to $1000" or "governments will eventually ban cryptos" or "crypto is a bubble, and the bubble is popping" have much greater power but if they're doing this to get a better entry level, then that makes me rather more confident than less.
Because it means that they do NOT want a prolonged bear market at all from a certain point in time onwards.
Apart from that, FUD will only last so long, it didn't have a lot of influence last year and buyer confidence can make it all useless.
All we need is some success, and my guess is we'll see hat in altcoins first, Ripple is breaking out as we speak. It's now testing the upper triangle border for the seventh time within 90 minutes, at $1.35 - just saying. Looks like a must-buy, it can hardly fall much lower than 1.28 and the breakout is a must soon. Ripple often looks good when BTC doesn't but there's no way to be sure., so maybe it will fall to 0.90
I'm mostly interested in Bitcoin as a moodo-meter for the entire market, and though we have a better situation financially/market cap with institutions coming on, BTC has been under direct attack from the BCH miner faction and other parties, and if they get us to seeing this situation like the one in 2014, a wet dream will come true for them.
Curves or no curves, Elliott or Gann, the real game is marketing. Let's do our thing.
For most, that means screaming "market withdrawal!" on youtube or here once a few rates come down, or critique-less hype of an exocoin. The market of the many is not always a good market as it's entirely dominated by senseless herd animal stampedes.