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RE: Stats and Gaming - The making of an Anonymous Lottery
Thought this would be about the gaming industry ^^ Maybe you should have said "Stats and Gambling" instead. An interesting article nonetheless. One thing, with the flipping coin you said: "If your first flip is a heads, you have a 66.6% chance that your next flip will in fact be heads - not a 50/50 chance."
I think this is false, it still is a 50% chance. It is different than the clip you showed with 3 doors (awesome movie btw!). In the case of the 3 doors you chose 1, another gets opened known by the host it is the wrong door, so chances are higher that the not chosen one is actually the right one. In the case of a single flip it is always a 1/2 chance.
Sorry I mislead, I thought the words anonymous lottery in the title might be a giveaway :)
In terms of statistics its a very tricky subject and that was my point. There are in fact HUGE algorithms that exist for determining values of coin tosses but the point behind this was that stats can actually be read and if one understand the laws of variable changing they can have better chances of beating the system. This is why Casino's use 4 and 5 decks of cards at blackjack tables - because ones ability to count cards increases their statistical ability to determine the outcome of game - of course not 100% o the time, but enough to win more than they lose.
It means all statistical games have to be rigged in someone favor - either the house, or the player and it makes statistical games very risky - especially if you are not a pro at stats.
(as I said in my last post, this post was going to be very different from my usual, so hope it doesn't discourage you from other posts I make) :)
Don't worry, still love ur posts ;)