F1 Betting Preview: 2019 Hungarian Grand Prix

Odds I could find to win:

• Lewis Hamilton - 2.050 (on SportX)
• Max Verstappen - 3.900 (on SportX)
• Valtteri Bottas - 6.500 (on Bet365)
• Sebastian Vettel - 10.280 (on Pinnacle)
• Charles Leclerc - 10.950 (on Pinnacle)
• Pierre Gasly - 49.810 (on Pinnacle)

Head to Head odds on SportX:
https://imgur.com/a/X9eabwc

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With Lewis Hamilton battling a nasty flu last week, Esteban Ocon nearly drove in his place, Mercedes had by far the team’s worst weekend of the year. Hamilton finished a disastrous ninth and teammate Valtteri Bottas crashed while pushing to catch Lance Stroll of all people. It goes without saying, the German GP was one to forget for Mercedes.

Hammer Hamilton To Win

Expect Mercedes, Hamilton in particular, to bounce back in a big way this weekend. In races following a 4th or worse position Hamilton has excelled, winning 4 of his last 5 in this scenario.

Lewis clearly has an affinity for Hungaroring, he has won 2 of the last 3 Hungarian Grand Prixs’, and has 6 career pole positions there to his name. Cornering data this season has shown that the Silver Arrows are the kings of corners, and good news for Mercedes is that Hungaroring is more of a twisty-turny go karting track than a typical F1 speed bowl.

While books do see Hamilton as the big favourite, I think there is still great value in him at 2.05. Don’t forget he has won 7 of 11 races this year, and Hungary is one of his favourite tracks.

I also see value in Bottas here, at 6.5x on Bet365, while he historically has struggled on this track he will be in the best car on the track but unless Hamilton has serious issues I expect him to be fighting for second with Verstappen.

Bet Hamilton to win @2.05 on SportX
Bet Bottas to win @6.50 on Bet365

Not the Track for Ferrari

Race pace last week showed Ferrari was blowing away people on the straights at Hockenheim - the Scuderia gained nearly 0.50 per lap on the straights. However, they gave that lead right back on the slow and medium corners where they were the 4th and 5th fastest car respectively.

Vettel has won three times in Hungary and following an incredible display of driving last week that saw him come from last to finish second he can’t be forgotten about. Although it seems that Ferrari’s cornering problems will be too much to overcome on a track that only has one real straight away.

The Ferrari will be set to maximum downforce this weekend to help on the corners, something we haven’t seen Charles Leclerc drive in since Monaco where crashed out. Hungary also happens to be one of the very few tracks Leclerc never won at during his junior career. For that reason I see Vettel as a good bet to beat Leclerc in head-to-head betting matchups.

Bet Vettel to beat Leclerc @1.923 on SportX

Verstappen the Best Driver Right Now

Max Verstappen has been solid all season, but he has been driving at another level over the last three races winning two. The Red Bull car should perform well this weekend and I see it as being the second strongest car on this track behind the Mercedes.

The problem is Max currently returns between 3.4x (Bet365) to 3.9x (SportX) to win, that seems expensive considering that this is really Hamilton’s race to lose, if you can find a return of 5-6x then he might be worth a shot.

Head-to-head matchups Verstappen currently pay:

• 1.75x to beat Bottas
• 1.54x to beat Vettel
• 1.40x to beat Leclerc

All of these present good value and it could be worth a small wager on all three.

Bet Verstappen to win head-to-heads versus Ferrari and Bottas on SportX

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