Litecoin - where next? Part 2 - Time to breeaatthh again...?
I posted my second ever STEEM article yesterday explaining my thinking for a potential entry price for Litecoin (LTC) https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@dabird444/litecoin-where-next-fibonacci-analysis AND WAS SURPRISED HOW MANY PEOPLE READ IT... As some bedtime time reading .... :-[ I read an interesting article on Facebook last night about selling the highs and buying the lows, not rushing into or out of trades and other really good advice.
The article was clearly aimed at people new to trading and he was obviously coming from the right place IMHO.
THE TIRADE THE GUY GOT THOUGH!
The people who responded seemed to be those new to trading and bought near the top a week or two ago. They appeared to be worried and annoyed - I know that with 4 years trading under my belt - I am. The last thing I want to hear again is HODL, buy low, sell high, stay the course, it will recover, "it's sale time...." etc etc
Some felt that he shouldn't state "the obvious" without at least trying to explain how the peaks and troughs are identified.
WHEN I BELIEVE THESE MARKETS WILL STABILISE
I'm going to put my neck on the line and share my take on when it may be safe to breath again. I'll be largely talking in summary about price action and the way I use Fibonacci retracements to ID entry points - the dips. I shall put it out there now I cocked up last week and bought some alts using a time frame that did not take the potential full retracement into consideration. Actually, I just didn't believe in my analysis - thinking that there was little chance of BTC and ETH retracing as much as they did and hence (IMO) causing a domino affect on the rest of the Crypto market cap. My learning.
I'm going to use the price action for LITECOIN again to explain my thinking as it's the view of many of us that this and most currencies have followed a very similar pattern.
On a daily chart I thought there would be a drop and calculated it would bounce at the point shown in this graph.
https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/59520b39189c7/
I posted the article (https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@dabird444/litecoin-where-next-fibonacci-analysis) yesterday explaining my thinking about buying into Litecoin (LTC). I said yesterday that I felt it was a solid coin to top up/get involved with if price does come down to 0.0151 BTC – in the knowledge that it may well drop to 0.01400 BTC.
Overnight it has reached 0.0151 and bounced off that level then hit the 61.8% level and has come back down again to test circa 0.0151 again. https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/59520d64053d9/
I already hold some Litecoin from a month or so ago so not looking to purchase at the current level (08.50 am UK time) but have an order to buy at 0.01381. I am not convinced it will come down that low but if it does I believe that it is a good place to top up. If it goes below that then I will HODL, I'll keep breathing but not worry too much if it drops below that - famous last words ... ;-)
In terms of when it'll be time to breath again - many of us agree that nearly all the price action is similar, across all currencies, and is consistent with what is happening with BTC and ETH. I believe LTC is the same and therefore basing my view on the price action of LTC as it too is following suit. You could actually use almost any currency.
As at the time of writing this, I am estimating that when Litecoin makes a FULL candle above the 4 hour retracement - above the 50% from previous highs then things will have as good as stabilised.... my view - not definitive.... as I can't find my crystal ball.....
ADDED: it's now 10:17 UK time. The price is sitting on the 50% retracement on a 15 min/1hour timeframe. If the worst is over it may bounce from here - that WOULD be nice. Still too early to jump in IMO I'd rather wait to see if the price can get above 0.0160 again else wait for my order order to be taken at 0.01381.
Good luck everyone. Don't make any hasty trades. Better to wait for a bit of a recovery then buy a 50% dip than jump in too early. There's always another trade. Think it through and PLEASE don't chase those trades!!!
Any and all feedback much appreciated as I'm new to STEEM - in fact I'm using it as I own some STEEM and thought - let's give it a try and see if I can be of any support to us early bird crypto adopters.
PS The usual caveat - I'm not a financial advisor. I'm a teacher/education consultant. These are just my views. If I got it right every time I'd be writing this article on a beach not sitting in my study in North Wales..... Hope this has been at least a little interesting if not helpful. Take care.