🐯Bitcoin update: The Bear Scenario Part 2 - Fractals and Dead Cats 🐈

Technical analysis doesn't predict the future, it only lets us look at probabilities. I look at it like a hand of poker. You can make the correct bet based on the odds, and still lose any given hand. It's the average over many hands that matters.

With that disclaimer, let's take a look at Bitcoin.

I am focusing on the bear scenario first, since we made a high volume break of the purple uptrend on Saturday - so I am assuming the downtrend is in play until proven otherwise. You can see that the last time we broke the uptrend, we got a dead cat bounce, AKA the "second chance to sell peak", then a drop of 36%.

These "second chance" peaks sometimes catch people by surprise - the general feeling in the air during these peaks is "oh, thank, god its not as bad as I thought". Don't be fooled. The current peak may go higher, perhaps testing the 7000s, but I would be prepared to bail or take profit at any sign of reversal.

But you might be asking, what if I sell and it goes higher?!

Welcome to trading. It certainly might.

So you have to ask yourself, based on your current position, what scenario would you be happy with?

In these uncertain periods, it is OK to sit on the sidelines in cash.

If I were sitting in Bitcoin with some nice gains, I'd be looking at this current run up as a good time to take profit, even if I turn out to be wrong, l'd just look for a good entry and buy back in later.

Good luck and stay safe.