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RE: Despite market optimism I still don't think we bottomed 📉🤔
Exactly for the reason you are stating, the bear period should be longer. 2014 was correction on 2 year bull, now we had a 3 year bull, i would not expect new bull before november
If only crypto was as simple as 1 + 1 = 2. Sadly it isn't. The fact is that we have no precedent for this, the history of cryptocurrencies is too short.
During that history we have had several other corrections/bear markets. They are dwarfed by the big ones, but zooming into the charts clearly reveals them, some with very significant percentage price drops. This version of events affects your take on the market in two ways:
So I'm still fairly confident in my approach to the interpretation of chart data, BUT, I think it's very important to remember that charts are not infallible in any way.
To me a Fundamental Analysis of the current market is more important. From an FA perspective, institutional sentiment towards crypto grows more positive by the week, fuelled somewhat by regulations and financial instruments which are now being developed in support of crypto. The market was also so saturated with FUD that it was rather obviously suppressed. FUD has how almost become a "crying wolf" situation and investor optimism is clearly on the rise. These and many other reasons would make it virtually impossible for the bottom to drop out of crypto right now. Clever money would simply buy it up too fast.
But sit in the bear camp with @pandorasbox if you must. I can't tell you what is right, I can only tell you my best informed guess. Frankly I'm always just glad to see people thinking about crypto issues and doing their own research, even when we reach opposing conclusions. I hope I'm right, but I would be a fool to be certain. Only time will resolve this debate.