RE: We need a stronger placebo, one that actually works
markets are driven by public sentiment. Things go up and down in value depending on how people feel about it, and possibly nothing more.
Your statement above is precisely the foundation upon which the Elliott Wave Theory of market analysis is built! Buy the book and read it – it’s not filled with technical mumbo-jumbo but instead is replete with fascinating historical anecdotes and common sense examples of the type of psychology and logic quite similar to your own. You will love this book, Meno!
The Elliott Wave Principle: A Key to Market Behavior
In my view, the “Theory/Principle” does not necessarily “predict” price movement, but instead, provides a framework with which to follow, track, and at best, “anticipate” at what stage and degree of “euphoria” or “despair” a given market is displaying at any moment in time – and across all time horizons.
The larger the time-frame one observes, the clearer the picture becomes. Monthly charts that span several decades, render the most reliable footprints in accurately uncloaking the stages of mass human psychology behind past price behavior leading to the present – which in turn, gives the seasoned analyst a far better chance of anticipating future price paths and duration's vs. not having any knowledge as to how human emotion is currently affecting a present valuation metric.
Here is a working example reflecting upon my work in such endeavors.
One final “aside:” After 40-years of endless study, I’ve been able to radically simplify the process of quantifying whether long-term trends are in “buy-mode” or “sell-mode,” which is the only metric hodlers for the long-haul are really concerned about. The last such "SELL-Signal" my application issued for long-term BTC hodlers was on September 10 from a price level well north of $6,000. I hope all that helps some!
i do read your analysis Passion, every time you post them, i check them out
;)
In truth, Meno - I'm more or less finished with my former obsession/passion for financial markets and analysis. The only thing I'm doing market-wise, (and I can do it while being several steps removed from day-to-day engagement), is monitoring the S&P 500 for long-term buy and sell signals for a small group of loyal subscribers who have been with me since 2005.
After 30-years of getting caught up in this hope - that hope, and the next hope... Waiting for a crash, a collapse, or a skyrocketing of the price of Gold, Silver, or Crypto's - I just got tired of waiting.
The more things change, the more they stay the same - but with a slightly different twist. I got tired of beating dead horses and saying the same things over and over and over again - only to listen to the sound of the underlying songs forever remaining the same.
Thankfully, I played a lot of my cards right, and for now anyway, I don't have to worry or obsess about any of this shit. My passions and focus have reverted to those of my youth. If check you my latest post, you'll completely understand exactly what I'm talking about.
If I sound a bit harsh or authoritative at times, it's only because I hope to relay what I know now vs. what I knew 20 or 30 years ago, and share what I've experienced to date. It is my aim to impart that perspective to help others balance their own perspectives in the most healthy and prosperous way.