Is Bitcoin ready to move up!! Here is my take.

FOREX ANALYSIS #1

Hey there, TraderSaan is here. Today I am going to share my analysis and setup on Bitcoin. I am actually a swing trader, meaning I hold my position for 2-3 days or more. So I usually trade at the timframe of 4 hour (H4), 1 hour(H1), or occasionally at 30 miniutes (M30). And one more thing is that I analyze the chart in tradingview and take trade in MT4.

Bitcoin/USD setup

Fundamental Outlook Bullish

• As you all are aware of Russia-Ukraine ongoing war, the NATO has banned Russia for doing exports and imports with them. And Russia can't use the currencies of some of its neighboring countries like Euro, JPY, USD, CHF etc. So Crypto traders should consider this information on an extent of seriousness. We all know Russia holds a huge amount of business contribution in the world economy. So if any deal happens between Russia and Japan or some other countries, it's a high probability that Russian businessmen choose Crypto currency as their payment currency.
So the conclusion is that more the war going, more likely the crypto gaining its move to the upside.

• In the pandemic situations like COVID-19 Fourth Wave and that war, the world economy is in quite a bit uncertinity. So traders and investors could go for investing in Crypto, as it's safe in this environment.

• In the last press conference of the Fed (US central bank), the chairman Jeorme Powell let us know that the inflation of US is high and the world economy is in uncertainity, he sounded hawkish though. My take on this is that the strength of USD is in hesitating mood now. So I am bullish on the pair of BTC/USD.

Technical Outlook Bullish

• In D1(Day Timeframe) timeframe, price has been consolidating for few days now, after making a big retracement move to the downside from 67000 to 33000, and expecting the upward movement after the consolidation period.
And price is pretty below the 50 & 200 MA (Moving Average).

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me, D1 chart of BTCUSD

• In H4 timeframe, price is playing the back & forth game, i.e., it's being the range bounded market for quite a while. And we see the Support & Resistance zone come to play the role severel times. Price is testing support zone - going up, similarly, price is testing resistance zone - going down. And it's making a consolidation zone in the D1.
And I expect the market make a move to the upside of the nearest resistance, and when the pullback is made, I'm going to jump in to BUY the BTC.

Quotation used in chart( S1= first touch of the price in the support zone, similar for S2,S3,S4| R1= first touch of the price in the resistance zone, similar for R2,R3,R4,R5| Ms= Minorr Support)

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me, H4 chart of BTCUSD

• In M30 ( 30 minutes) timeframe, the price is aggressively making Higher Highs and Higher Lows, and that can be a good indication of the upward momentum against the USD.

Image source: tradingview, prepared by me, M30 chart of BTCUSD

I always take a trade when my fundamental and technical analysis say the same thing. As follows:

Case I
Fundamental = buy, Tchnical = sell, that implies Not To Trade

Case II
Fundamental =sell, Technical = buy, that implies Not To Trade

Case III
Fundamental = buy, Technical = buy, that implies Jump In For Buying

Case IV
Fundamental = sell, Technical = sell, that implies Jump In For Selling

Disclaimer: This is not any financial advise or trading mantra. There is always high risk in Trading & Investing in the financial markets. My purpose is to help traders to learn. This post is made for completely educational purpose. Hope it helps.

Thank you very much if you make it to the end. Happy trade.